# Viborg FF vs FC København > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 23 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38232) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Viborg FF 4–0 FC København ## Model verdict - **Viborg FF win:** 35% - **Draw:** 24% - **FC København win:** 41% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Visitors carry the clear edge after explosive recent run ## The stage Kickoff is Sun 23 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC in the Superliga[^fact-1]. This is a regular‑season fixture with straightforward competitive significance inside the domestic campaign window already set by the calendar[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Form separates the sides sharply. Viborg FF arrive with a WDLWL sequence over their last 10 matches, recorded as 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, yielding 1.10 points per game and an output of 1.00 goals scored while conceding 1.50 per match[^fact-4]. FC København are in a different cycle entirely: their last 10 games read WWWWW and, more broadly, 9 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in that sample, producing 2.80 points per game and an attack returning 3.40 goals per match while their defence concedes just 0.90[^fact-5]. The Elo comparison after adjusting for home advantage also favours the visitors, with Viborg showing an Elo differential of −42 against København[^fact-3]. That divergence shows in the model verdict as well: the model places the home win probability at 35%, the draw at 24% and the away victory at 41% — the away selection is the model's top pick but flagged with low confidence and a 6 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up probability[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Viborg's most notable in‑form attacking contributor over the recent run is Thomas Jørgensen, who has 2 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.19[^fact-8]. Viborg also carry a concrete defensive blow: Mads Søndergaard is unavailable through injury and had accumulated 300 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-10]. København's standout is Jordan Larsson, who arrives with 2 goals and 4 assists across his last three appearances and an average rating of 8.01 in that sample[^fact-9]. København likewise have a notable missing figure between the sticks: Dominik Kotarski is out injured after contributing 894 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. Those personnel notes land unevenly. Viborg lose a player who featured meaningfully for 300 minutes recently[^fact-10], while København's absence is a long‑serving goalkeeper who played 894 minutes in the run-up[^fact-11]. The balance of attacking momentum and defensive stability visible in the form lines and player ratings still tips towards the visitors given Larsson's output and København's recent goals conceded rate[^fact-9][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were compared against the model across 3 market offerings[^fact-12]. Two market edges emerge, both with low confidence flags from the model. - Both Teams to Score — model probability 68% versus a market price of 1.57 at WilliamHill, giving an edge of 4.2 percentage points in the model's favour[^fact-6]. - Over 2.5 Goals — model probability 69% versus a market price of 1.54 at Unibet, representing an edge of 4.0 percentage points according to the model[^fact-7]. Both edges sit in the same direction: the model expects scoring from both sides and a lively goals count. That expectation is consistent with Viborg's conceded rate of 1.50 goals per match and København's high scoring output of 3.40 per match, alongside København's low concession number of 0.90 which suggests volatility rather than a shut‑down expectation[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s low confidence markers and the modest size of the edges recommend caution rather than conviction[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans to the away side — 41% for an away win versus 35% for the home — but carries low confidence, meaning the edge is present but not overwhelming[^fact-2]. The Elo differential of −42 with home advantage accounted for backs the visitors' superiority in underlying quality[^fact-3]. The clearest model‑market angles are on goals: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5, both showing small model edges vs the market and both flagged with low confidence[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 23 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 35% / Draw 24% / Away 41% (source: model; confidence low, 6 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — VFF vs COP — Elo differential -42 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **VFF recent form** — WDLWL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **COP recent form** — WWWWW last 10: 9-1-0 (W-D-L), 2.80 PPG, 3.40 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 68% vs market price 1.57 at WilliamHill, edge 4.2 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 69% vs market price 1.54 at Unibet, edge 4.0 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **VFF in-form player** — Thomas Jørgensen — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.19. [^fact-9]: **COP in-form player** — Jordan Larsson — 2 goals, 4 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 8.01. [^fact-10]: **VFF key absence** — Mads Søndergaard out (injury), 300 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **COP key absence** — Dominik Kotarski out (injury), 894 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .