# Horsens vs Viborg FF > Superliga · Kickoff Fri 28 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38299) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Horsens 2–3 Viborg FF ## Model verdict - **Horsens win:** 10% - **Draw:** 15% - **Viborg FF win:** 76% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model backs heavy away edge; under 2.5 also attractive ## The stage Friday evening’s Superliga fixture kicks off at 17:00 UTC on 28 August 2026 — the match sits in the regular domestic slate and offers immediate three-point consequences for both sides’ league trajectories[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model delivers a stark verdict: an away win is the overwhelming probability at 76%, with the home side at 10% and the draw at 15%[^fact-2]. That view is reflected in the underlying ratings gap: Elo adjusted for home advantage gives the visitors a 144-point edge[^fact-3]. Recent results amplify that gap. Horsens have managed two wins, two draws and six defeats in their last ten outings (2-2-6), collecting 0.80 points per game while averaging 0.80 goals scored and conceding 1.70 per match[^fact-4]. Viborg, by contrast, arrive with four wins, two draws and four defeats (4-2-4), 1.40 points per game and a symmetric 1.30 goals for and against per game — cleaner and more productive than their hosts over the same window[^fact-5]. The combination of Elo, the model probability and the form profiles points to clear momentum for the visitors[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Horsens’ most notable in-form contributor cited is Kristian Kirkegaard, who has one goal and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.55 across those games[^fact-8]. Viborg’s top recent performer in the supplied metrics is Oliver Bundgaard: two assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.46[^fact-9]. On the availability front, Horsens will be without Omar Jarju due to injury[^fact-10]. Viborg are missing Mads Søndergaard with injury as well; Søndergaard has accumulated 303 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. These absences are the heaviest named blows to each matchday squad in the supplied facts[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies two clear edges versus market prices across the three markets analysed[^fact-12]. First, the most significant edge is on the away Match Winner: the model probabilities put an away win at 77% while the market price at Dafabet implies a lower probability via odds of 1.75 — a model-to-market edge of 19.5 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the model suggests a tilt toward fewer goals: an Under 2.5 goals selection carries a 54% model probability against a market price at Pinnacle implying a 2.25 line — a 9.9 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Both edges are given with high confidence in the supplied modelling output and stem from the same core view: a strong away favourite who is not expected to produce a high-scoring contest[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the visitors, assigning a 76% chance to an away victory and amplifying that with a 144-point Elo advantage; value is concentrated on the away Match Winner and on Under 2.5 goals per the model’s comparisons to market prices across the three analysed markets[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 28 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 10% / Draw 15% / Away 76% (source: model; confidence high, 61 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ACH vs VFF — Elo differential -144 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ACH recent form** — WWLLD last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **VFF recent form** — WWDLW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.75 at Dafabet, edge 19.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.25 at Pinnacle, edge 9.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **ACH in-form player** — Kristian Kirkegaard — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.55. [^fact-9]: **VFF in-form player** — Oliver Bundgaard — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.46. [^fact-10]: **ACH key absence** — Omar Jarju out (injury). [^fact-11]: **VFF key absence** — Mads Søndergaard out (injury), 303 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .