# St. Mirren vs Motherwell > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 30 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38300) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** St. Mirren 3–3 Motherwell ## Model verdict - **St. Mirren win:** 9% - **Draw:** 17% - **Motherwell win:** 73% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Away side overwhelming favourites as goals looks scarce ## The stage This Premiership fixture kicks off on Sun 30 Aug 2026 at 14:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The game presents a clear competitive asymmetry in the model’s view: a strong lean away from the home side[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum St. Mirren’s recent run reads WWWDD across their last 10, recorded as a 4-2-4 W‑D‑L split, producing 1.40 points per game and averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Motherwell arrive with DWWLD in their last 10 — a 3-3-4 W‑D‑L split — at 1.20 points per game and averages of 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On raw Elo, the visitors carry the edge: St. Mirren sit 95 Elo points behind Motherwell after home advantage has been applied to the comparison[^fact-3]. That differential lines up with the model’s probability split, which gives the home side 9%, a draw 17% and the away side 73% — a 56 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up and a high‑confidence verdict[^fact-2]. ## Personnel St. Mirren’s most in‑form attacker in the dataset is Killian Phillips, who has three goals and zero assists in his last two appearances with an average rating of 7.91[^fact-8]. Motherwell’s influence player named in the facts is Lukas Fadinger: two goals and zero assists in his last four appearances, average rating 7.21[^fact-9]. The visitors also face a noteworthy absence: Eythor Bjørgolfsson is out injured and has four minutes in the noted recent run[^fact-10]. The available statistics point to Phillips as St. Mirren’s attacking hot spot, while Fadinger is the clearer named source of goals for Motherwell[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags two market edges with high confidence against publicly visible prices. First, No on Both Teams to Score is modelled at 72% versus a Betfair market price implying a lower probability at 2.30, producing an edge of 28.1 percentage points[^fact-6]. Second, the model expects Under 2.5 goals at 72% against a Betfair price of 1.87, an 18.6 percentage‑point edge[^fact-7]. Three markets were compared against the model in total, per the analysis note[^fact-11]. Those twin edges are consistent with the low scoring averages on both sides — St. Mirren’s 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match, and Motherwell’s 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded per match — which collectively point toward a low expected total of goals[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s heavy away probability and the under/BTTS lean together form a coherent prediction: a Motherwell win in a game that lacks goal volume, according to the supplied data[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model’s clear lean is an away victory, with Motherwell at 73% compared with 9% for the hosts and a 17% chance of a draw; this is a high‑confidence gap to the runner‑up (56 percentage points)[^fact-2]. Supporting signals include a 95‑point Elo advantage after home adjustment[^fact-3], St. Mirren’s modest scoring rate and Motherwell’s named attacking contributor, and two market edges pointing to under 2.5 goals and no BTTS at 72% each[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 30 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 17% / Away 73% (source: model; confidence high, 56 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STM vs MOT — Elo differential -95 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STM recent form** — WWWDD last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **MOT recent form** — DWWLD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 72% vs market price 2.30 at Betfair, edge 28.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 72% vs market price 1.87 at Betfair, edge 18.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **STM in-form player** — Killian Phillips — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 7.91. [^fact-9]: **MOT in-form player** — Lukas Fadinger — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.21. [^fact-10]: **MOT key absence** — Eythor Bjørgolfsson out (injury), 4 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .