# Hearts vs St. Johnstone > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 29 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38302) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Hearts 2–1 St. Johnstone ## Model verdict - **Hearts win:** 77% - **Draw:** 15% - **St. Johnstone win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home edge as Hearts chase control against fragile visitors ## The stage This Premiership fixture kicks off on Sat 29 Aug 2026 at 14:00 UTC, a slot that compresses the weekend schedule and rewards teams able to stamp authority early in the matchday. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum Hearts arrive with markedly stronger underlying indicators. The model gives the home side a 77% chance, with a 62 percentage-point gap to the runner-up, signalling a dominant pre-match expectation. [^fact-2] That aligns with an applied Elo differential: Hearts hold a +434-point edge once home advantage is included. [^fact-3] Recent form supports the numbers. Hearts' last 10 read WLLWD, translated to a 6-2-2 (W-D-L) split, producing 2.00 points per game and averaging 2.00 goals scored while conceding 1.10 per match. [^fact-4] St. Johnstone arrive on shakier ground: their last 10 are LWLLW — 3-0-7 (W-D-L) — worth 0.90 points per game, with 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded on average. [^fact-5] The combination of Elo superiority and recent output paints a clear momentum gap: Hearts are both more likely to take control of the game and more productive in attack, while St. Johnstone's numbers point towards vulnerability at the back. [^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5] ## Personnel Hearts' key attacking spark in recent outings has been Cláudio Braga, who has registered 1 goal and 2 assists across his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.77 in that window. [^fact-8] St. Johnstone's most conspicuous form figure is Elliot Watt, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last three appearances and an average rating of 7.43 across that run. [^fact-9] Personnel losses matter here. Hearts will be without Craig Halkett due to injury; Halkett has logged 423 minutes in the recent run prior to this absence. [^fact-10] St. Johnstone are also missing B. Mikulić through injury. [^fact-11] Each absence narrows options and forces tactical adjustments; the numerical footprint of Halkett in particular (423 minutes) underscores the weight of that unavailability. [^fact-10][^fact-11] ## Where the model sees value The model compares three market lines against its probabilities. [^fact-12] Primary value emerges on the Match Winner market: the model prices a Home win at 81% versus a market price of 1.78 at Dafabet, an edge of 24.6 percentage points with high confidence. [^fact-6] That gulf mirrors the Elo and form advantages and is the clearest market inefficiency the model flags. There is also a secondary signal on the Goals market. The model puts Under 2.5 goals at a 54% chance against a Pinnacle market price of 2.11, producing a 7.0 percentage-point edge with mid confidence. [^fact-7] Given Hearts' 2.00 goals scored per match and St. Johnstone's 1.80 conceded per match, the under signal is not intuitively obvious from raw scoring rates alone, but it represents the model's probabilistic expectation against the market line. [^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7] Those are the two principal edges surfaced. The strongest conviction is on the home match-winner line; the under 2.5 mark is a smaller, more cautious tilt. [^fact-6][^fact-7] ## Verdict The model leans heavily to Hearts, combining a 77% match probability, a +434 Elo advantage with home accounted for, and clearer recent productivity; absence notes complicate but do not erase the gap. [^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-10][^fact-11] The clearest market inefficiency sits in the Home match-winner price, with a model-market gap large enough to dominate the narrative, while a modest edge exists on Under 2.5 goals. [^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 29 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 77% / Draw 15% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 62 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HEA vs STJ — Elo differential +434 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HEA recent form** — WLLWD last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **STJ recent form** — LWLLW last 10: 3-0-7 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 81% vs market price 1.78 at Dafabet, edge 24.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.11 at Pinnacle, edge 7.0 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **HEA in-form player** — Cláudio Braga — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.77. [^fact-9]: **STJ in-form player** — Elliot Watt — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.43. [^fact-10]: **HEA key absence** — Craig Halkett  out (injury), 423 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **STJ key absence** — B. Mikulić out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .