# Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren > Premiership · Kickoff Wed 2 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38313) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Kilmarnock 0–1 St. Mirren ## Model verdict - **Kilmarnock win:** 45% - **Draw:** 27% - **St. Mirren win:** 29% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model favours hosts but tight margins leave room for a draw ## The stage This midweek Premiership fixture kicks off on Wed 2 Sep 2026 at 18:45 UTC, with Kilmarnock hosting St. Mirren in a league match that can reshuffle confidence in the early season run-up[^fact-1]. The match is framed as a home assignment for Kilmarnock and an away trip for St. Mirren; the model incorporated that home edge into its underlying ratings[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences tell a contrasting story. Kilmarnock arrive with a recent pattern of results showing two wins in their last five but with instability overall — their last 10 read as LLLWW and a record of 4-1-5 (W-D-L), producing 1.30 points per game; they average 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per match in that sample[^fact-4]. St. Mirren look the steadier side: their last-10 block reads DWWWD, a 4-3-3 record (W-D-L) and 1.50 points per game; they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded across the same span[^fact-5]. Those form lines sit against an Elo picture that gives Kilmarnock a clear edge once home advantage is applied — an Elo differential of +115 points in Kilmarnock's favour[^fact-3]. The model still produces a close probability split: home 45%, draw 27%, away 29% — a lean to the hosts but with a single-digit gap to St. Mirren and a meaningful share for the draw[^fact-2]. That 16 percentage-point confidence gap to the runner-up in the model's internal ranking suggests the 45% home number is the model's preferred outcome, even if the market will have competing signals[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Kilmarnock's short-term attacking form is concentrated around Joe Hugill, who has five goals and no assists in his last five appearances while carrying an average match rating of 7.36[^fact-7]. That scoring burst is the clearest individual datapoint on the home side. St. Mirren's current form player on attacking returns is Samuel Ramos, with one goal and two assists in his last three appearances and an average rating of 7.24[^fact-8]. Those two individual streaks define the most reliable goal sources for each side in recent games[^fact-7][^fact-8]. The supplied facts do not list absences or a full squad map; analysis therefore leans on the available in-form indicators rather than an injury bulletin. The model's outputs and the underlying Elo gap implicitly fold any unavailable squad information into their probabilities[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were compared against the model across three markets[^fact-9]. The clearest statistical edge flagged is on the goals market: the model projects Under 2.5 goals with 59% probability versus a market price of 2.03 at Pinnacle, which the model translates into an edge of 10.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. That is the standout disparity between model and market pricing among the markets analysed[^fact-6][^fact-9]. Context from form and the box-score rates helps explain that signal. Kilmarnock's games in the recent sample average 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per match for each Kilmarnock fixture in isolation, while St. Mirren's recent fixtures average 1.10 scored and 1.10 conceded — figures that together are consistent with tempo and defensive stability that can compress total goals rather than inflate them[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model therefore assigns a strong probability to a lower-scoring outcome despite an Elo edge for the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side at 45% while still pricing a sizable draw likelihood and a near-30% chance for an away result, reflecting a clash between Kilmarnock's Elo-favoured status and St. Mirren's steadier recent form[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. The clearest market opportunity against the model is on Under 2.5 goals, where the model's 59% projection sits notably above the market's implied probability at Pinnacle[^fact-6][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Wed 2 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 45% / Draw 27% / Away 29% (source: model; confidence high, 16 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — KIL vs STM — Elo differential +115 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **KIL recent form** — LLLWW last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **STM recent form** — DWWWD last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 59% vs market price 2.03 at Pinnacle, edge 10.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **KIL in-form player** — Joe Hugill — 5 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.36. [^fact-8]: **STM in-form player** — Samuel Ramos — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.24. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .