# Hibernian vs Hearts > Premiership · Kickoff Thu 3 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38314) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Hibernian 1–3 Hearts ## Model verdict - **Hibernian win:** 50% - **Draw:** 29% - **Hearts win:** 21% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tense Edinburgh derby framed by tight goals market and model edge ## The stage This Premiership fixture kicks off Thu 3 Sep 2026 at 18:45 UTC, a midweek clash that lands early in the campaign calendar and carries immediate table implications for both clubs[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Hibernian arrive on a mixed run: WWLLW across their last 10 matches, recorded as 5-0-5 (W-D-L) with an average of 1.50 points per game and 1.50 goals scored versus 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Hearts look statistically stronger in their recent sample with WWLLW recorded as 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 points per game and 2.10 goals scored against 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model gives Hibernian the immediate probability edge at home — 50% for a home win versus 21% for an away win — and rates a draw at 29% (the model notes a 21 percentage-point gap to the runner-up, indicating higher confidence in that estimate)[^fact-2]. The Elo comparison, with home advantage applied, also favors Hibernian by +47 points, a non-trivial single-metric edge that reinforces the model’s home-lean[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Hibernian’s attacking form carries a clear focal point: Martin Boyle has three goals in his last four appearances and an average match rating of 7.14 in that window[^fact-7]. That scoring run is a major part of Hibernian’s 1.50 goals-per-game figure in the recent sample[^fact-4]. Hibernian will be without Owen Elding through injury; Elding accounted for 629 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a chunk of continuity from Hibernian’s lineup[^fact-9]. Hearts’ form features Cláudio Braga as a recent creator and finisher: one goal and two assists in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 6.88 over that period[^fact-8]. Hearts will be missing Craig Halkett through injury; Halkett contributed 423 minutes in the recent run and his absence alters the defensive picture that underpinned Hearts’ 1.20 goals-conceded average[^fact-10][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value The clearest market discrepancy is on total goals: the model puts Under 2.5 goals at 68% probability while the market price at Pinnacle sits at 1.97, producing an edge of 17.2 percentage points in the model’s favour (high confidence)[^fact-6]. That single-market gap is flagged alongside two other markets analysed by the model (three markets compared in total)[^fact-11]. The Under 2.5 signal dovetails with the recent defensive profiles: Hibernian’s recent conceded rate of 1.30 per match and Hearts’ 1.20 per match suggest matches involving these sides in the sample have not been goal-heavy on average[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s 68% probability for Under 2.5 is materially higher than implied by the 1.97 price, which is the principal quantitative anomaly identified here[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans for a Hibernian home win but treats the contest as tighter than a blowout: 50% Home, 29% Draw, 21% Away, with the Elo comparison also favouring Hibernian by +47 points when home advantage is applied[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The strongest pure value signal is on Under 2.5 goals, where the model’s 68% probability diverges sharply from the market price of 1.97 (an edge of 17.2 percentage points, high confidence)[^fact-6][^fact-11]. Martin Boyle’s recent scoring form and the absences of Owen Elding and Craig Halkett are the key personnel notes that should shape how each side approaches the game[^fact-7][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 3 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 50% / Draw 29% / Away 21% (source: model; confidence high, 21 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HIB vs HEA — Elo differential +47 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HIB recent form** — WWLLW last 10: 5-0-5 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HEA recent form** — WWLLW last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 68% vs market price 1.97 at Pinnacle, edge 17.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **HIB in-form player** — Martin Boyle — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.14. [^fact-8]: **HEA in-form player** — Cláudio Braga — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.88. [^fact-9]: **HIB key absence** — Owen Elding out (injury), 629 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **HEA key absence** — Craig Halkett  out (injury), 423 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .