# Dundee vs St. Johnstone > Premiership · Kickoff Wed 2 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38316) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Dundee 1–1 St. Johnstone ## Model verdict - **Dundee win:** 65% - **Draw:** 21% - **St. Johnstone win:** 14% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home advantage and a clear model edge point to a low-scoring outcome ## The stage This Premiership fixture kicks off on Wed 2 Sep 2026 at 18:45 UTC, a midweek slot that compresses preparation windows for both sides[^fact-1]. The bookmaker market and model both treat the hosts as clear favourites, creating a context where small margins in personnel and form could decide the match[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Dundee arrive on noticeably stronger recent form: their last 10 results read LWWLW with a 5-1-4 (W-D-L) split, yielding 1.60 points per game and an attacking/defensive output of 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. St. Johnstone’s sequence is the opposite trajectory — LLWLL, a 3-0-7 record, 0.90 points per game, 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The statistical gap is reinforced by an Elo differential of +232 in Dundee’s favour after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. The model quantifies that gap into a clear forecast: Home 65% / Draw 21% / Away 14%, a 44 percentage-point margin over the runner-up and described with high confidence[^fact-2]. That combination of form, goal rates and Elo points to momentum sitting squarely with the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Dundee’s in-form attacking contributor is Joe Westley, who has scored 3 goals with 0 assists in his last 5 appearances and carries an average match rating of 6.73 across that run[^fact-7]. St. Johnstone’s most notable recent influence is Jamie Gullan, who has 0 goals and 2 assists in his last 3 appearances with an average rating of 7.14[^fact-8]. On absences, Dundee will be missing Callum Jones through injury; he accumulated 180 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-9]. St. Johnstone are without B. Mikulić due to injury[^fact-10]. Those absences remove recent minutes from each side and could shape rotation or role adjustments, with the larger context favouring the hosts given their stronger underlying metrics[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags the under 2.5 goals market as the clearest edge relative to available prices: model probability 54% versus a market price of 2.01 at Pinnacle, an edge of 4.6 percentage points and classified at mid confidence[^fact-6]. That view aligns with the teams’ recent goal rates — Dundee averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match, and St. Johnstone averaging 1.10 scored and 1.70 conceded per match — numbers that combine into a profile consistent with lower aggregate scoring[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The alignment between model probability and market price is one of three markets the model has analysed for this game, and it emerges as the top actionable discrepancy identified by the model’s comparisons[^fact-11][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side: 65% for a Dundee win, with a draw at 21% and an away result at 14%, reflecting a large confidence gap to the runner-up implied probability[^fact-2]. The Elo edge of +232 points and superior recent form support that lean, while the scoring profiles and the model’s probability edge on Under 2.5 goals suggest a game that could be controlled by the hosts without exploding into a high-scoring affair[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Wed 2 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 65% / Draw 21% / Away 14% (source: model; confidence high, 44 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — DUD vs STJ — Elo differential +232 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **DUD recent form** — LWWLW last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **STJ recent form** — LLWLL last 10: 3-0-7 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.01 at Pinnacle, edge 4.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **DUD in-form player** — Joe Westley — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.73. [^fact-8]: **STJ in-form player** — Jamie Gullan — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.14. [^fact-9]: **DUD key absence** — Callum Jones  out (injury), 180 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **STJ key absence** — B. Mikulić out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .