# Viborg FF vs Lyngby Boldklub > Superliga · Kickoff Fri 4 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38319) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Viborg FF 0–2 Lyngby Boldklub ## Model verdict - **Viborg FF win:** 76% - **Draw:** 15% - **Lyngby Boldklub win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Big Elo Gap and Key Absence Shape Expected Runaway ## The stage This fixture arrives as a Superliga meeting with kickoff set for Fri 4 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum Viborg enter with a clear recent advantage: five wins, two draws and three defeats across their last 10 outings, delivering 1.70 points per game and averaging 1.60 goals scored while conceding 1.40 per match. [^fact-4] Lyngby’s sequence reads one win, four draws and five defeats from their last 10, a run worth 0.70 points per game and with 1.10 goals scored against 1.90 conceded on average. [^fact-5] Those trends are reflected in ratings-based distance: the Elo edge, with home advantage applied, sits at +351 points in Viborg’s favour. [^fact-3] The model formalises that gap into a strong probabilistic lean: Home 76% / Draw 15% / Away 9%, with a high-confidence margin — a 61 percentage-point gap to the runner-up. [^fact-2] ## Personnel Viborg’s most in-form attacker across recent appearances is Mads Søndergaard, who produced two goals and two assists in his last five outings and carries an average rating of 7.04 — though he is listed as unavailable with an injury after 307 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-8][^fact-10] Lyngby’s standout in the same window has been Ísak Snær Thorvaldsson, with two goals and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.17. [^fact-9] No further individual availability details are supplied in the provided facts; the absence of Viborg’s hot attacker is the most tangible personnel swing in the dataset. [^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value The model identifies two clear market discrepancies versus public prices across three markets analysed. [^fact-11] First, the Match Winner market: the model assigns a 76% probability to the home win while the market price converts to odds of 1.85 at WilliamHill, creating an edge of 22.1 percentage points (high confidence). [^fact-2][^fact-6] Second, the Goals O/U 2.5 market: the model gives Under 2.5 a 54% probability while the market price on Betfair sits at 2.55, producing an edge of 15.2 percentage points (high confidence). [^fact-7] Both edges are presented with the model’s stated high confidence; the Match Winner discrepancy aligns with the substantial Elo and form advantages outlined above, while the Under 2.5 lean coheres with the two clubs’ recent goals-for and goals-against averages. [^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5] ## Verdict The model’s stance is emphatic: a strong home lean driven by a 351-point Elo advantage and robust Viborg form, producing a 76% home probability versus a 15% draw and 9% away split. [^fact-3][^fact-2] The absence of Viborg’s recent contributor Mads Søndergaard is a meaningful caveat but does not, in the model’s output, overturn the underlying edges — the system still surfaces value on the home match-winner and on Under 2.5 goals. [^fact-10][^fact-6][^fact-7] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 4 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 76% / Draw 15% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 61 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — VFF vs LBB — Elo differential +351 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **VFF recent form** — WWWDL last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LBB recent form** — DLDLD last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 76% vs market price 1.85 at WilliamHill, edge 22.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.55 at Betfair, edge 15.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **VFF in-form player** — Mads Søndergaard — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-9]: **LBB in-form player** — Ísak Snær Thorvaldsson — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.17. [^fact-10]: **VFF key absence** — Mads Søndergaard out (injury), 307 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .