# St. Mirren vs Celtic > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 5 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38320) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** St. Mirren 1–2 Celtic ## Model verdict - **St. Mirren win:** 9% - **Draw:** 12% - **Celtic win:** 79% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Celtic overwhelming favourites as form and model converge ## The stage A Premiership nightkick on Saturday; kickoff is scheduled for 19:00 UTC on 5 September 2026, a fixture with clear table implications for both sides given the calendar and competition context[^fact-1]. The model assigns a dominant probability to the away side, with a 79% chance for an away win compared with 9% for the hosts and 12% for a draw — a gap the model describes with high confidence, noting a 67 percentage-point margin to the nearest runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences make the prediction simple on paper. St. Mirren arrive on a run described as W D W W W over their last ten matches, a 5-3-2 record producing 1.80 points per game, 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Celtic’s string is sharper: W W W W D across their last ten, a 9-1-0 record worth 2.80 points per game while averaging 2.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo differential — already adjusted for home advantage — hands Celtic a sizeable edge of 275 points, a quantitative gap that reinforces the model’s probability split[^fact-3]. Put simply: form, output in goals and Elo all point the same direction. ## Personnel St. Mirren’s most talked-about in-form contributor is Samuel Ramos, who has one goal and two assists in his last three appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.24 across that run[^fact-9]. That output explains St. Mirren’s positive attacking numbers despite their underdog status[^fact-4]. Celtic’s current attacking fulcrum is Camilo Durán: three goals and two assists in his last four appearances, with an average rating of 7.87 over those games[^fact-10]. Durán’s productivity sits behind Celtic’s 2.70 goals-per-game sequence and correlates with the side’s strong results[^fact-5]. The clearest named absence that affects defensive balance is Alistair Johnston, who is out injured after contributing 459 minutes in the recent run; his absence is the single listed personnel gap for the visitors in the supplied facts[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared between model probabilities and market prices[^fact-12]. All three show edges where the model and market diverge: - Under 2.5 goals: the model gives a 56% probability versus a market price implied at 2.75 with an estimated edge of 19.3 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. - Both Teams to Score — No: the model assigns 60% to “No” while the market quotes 2.25, translating to a 15.7 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-7]. - Match Winner — Away: the model places a 78% chance on an away victory while the market lists the away price at 1.52, producing a model-market edge of 12.5 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. Those three lines combine the model’s view that Celtic carry a substantial winning probability while the game’s profile — limited concession rates for St. Mirren and a Celtic side that concedes 1.00 per match in its run — supports outcomes with fewer total goals and an increased chance of one side keeping a clean sheet[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s high-confidence edges on Under 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score — No are internally consistent with the low concessions numbers shown by both teams in their recent runs[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is unequivocal: heavy away tilt with Celtic the clear expected winner (79% model probability, 67 pp margin to the runner-up)[^fact-2], reinforced by a -275 Elo differential after home advantage and by contrasting recent outputs (2.80 versus 1.80 PPG; 2.70 versus 1.20 goals scored per match)[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. The recommended focus from a quantitative angle is on the model-identified market discrepancies — the match-winner, under 2.5 goals and both teams to score — which are the three markets that were analysed for edges[^fact-12][^fact-8][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 5 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 12% / Away 79% (source: model; confidence high, 67 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STM vs CEL — Elo differential -275 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STM recent form** — WDWWW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **CEL recent form** — WWWWD last 10: 9-1-0 (W-D-L), 2.80 PPG, 2.70 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 2.75 at bet365, edge 19.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 60% vs market price 2.25 at BetVictor, edge 15.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 78% vs market price 1.52 at MansionBet, edge 12.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **STM in-form player** — Samuel Ramos — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.24. [^fact-10]: **CEL in-form player** — Camilo Durán — 3 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.87. [^fact-11]: **CEL key absence** — Alistair Johnston out (injury), 459 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .