# St. Johnstone vs Hibernian > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38321) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** St. Johnstone 2–1 Hibernian ## Model verdict - **St. Johnstone win:** 9% - **Draw:** 16% - **Hibernian win:** 75% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear statistical edge points to one-way contest on Sunday ## The stage This is a Scottish Premiership match scheduled for Sun 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC; the fixture sits on a weekend slot that typically compresses recovery windows for both sides[^fact-1]. The published framing below treats the game as a straight league contest inside the Premiership calendar rather than a cup tie[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines put clear distance between the two teams. St. Johnstone arrive on a run of DLLWL over their last 10, translating to a 2-1-7 record, 0.70 points per game and 1.10 goals scored against 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Hibernian's form reads LWWLL across their last 10, shown as 4-0-6, producing 1.20 points per game with 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model quantifies the gulf more brutally: it gives the home side a 9% chance, a 16% chance of a draw and a 75% chance for the away side—an outcome probability distribution that places heavy weight on the visitors[^fact-2]. That probabilistic gap is mirrored in Elo: St. Johnstone carry a negative differential of 151 Elo points versus Hibernian once home advantage is applied, a gap large enough to imply a substantive quality and expectation mismatch on paper[^fact-3]. The combination of the Elo deficit and the model's 75% away probability underlines how much the numbers favour Hibernian coming into this round[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel St. Johnstone's most noticeable recent attacking contributor in the short term is Jamie Gullan, who has two assists and no goals in his last three appearances, posting an average match rating of 7.14 across that run[^fact-7]. Hibernian's short-term form player is Martin Boyle, who has two goals and no assists in his last three appearances and the same average rating of 7.14 over those matches[^fact-8]. Availability will matter: St. Johnstone will be without B. Mikulić through injury, a named absence that the squad must work around[^fact-9]. Hibernian are also missing a figure of note—Owen Elding is out injured after contributing 541 minutes in the recent run prior to this absence[^fact-10]. Those absences are the clearest personnel changes explicitly documented for each side and should shape selection and match plans accordingly[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model examined three markets against public pricing and highlighted one modest edge: the Under 2.5 goals market. The model assigns 54% probability to Under 2.5 goals while the market price at 10Bet implies a probability corresponding to odds 1.95, producing a model-market edge of 3.1 percentage points in favour of the Under selection (the model flags this as low confidence)[^fact-6][^fact-11]. That single flagged opportunity sits against a broader market picture in which the model's primary call is strongly tilted to the away side—Hibernian—per the 75% away outcome probability[^fact-2]. The edge on totals should be treated as a subtle signal rather than a headline prediction given the stated low confidence and the relatively small margin versus the market[^fact-6]. ## Verdict The numbers coalesce into a clear lean: the model heavily favours the away side with a 75% probability, underpinned by a -151 Elo differential after home advantage and contrasting recent forms that show Hibernian with the better returns over the last 10 matches[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. The only market quibble the model surfaces is a low-confidence small edge for Under 2.5 goals versus a 1.95 price at 10Bet[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 16% / Away 75% (source: model; confidence high, 59 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STJ vs HIB — Elo differential -151 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STJ recent form** — DLLWL last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HIB recent form** — LWWLL last 10: 4-0-6 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 1.95 at 10Bet, edge 3.1 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **STJ in-form player** — Jamie Gullan — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.14. [^fact-8]: **HIB in-form player** — Martin Boyle — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.14. [^fact-9]: **STJ key absence** — B. Mikulić out (injury). [^fact-10]: **HIB key absence** — Owen Elding out (injury), 541 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .