# Hearts vs Dundee > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38323) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Hearts 2–1 Dundee ## Model verdict - **Hearts win:** 74% - **Draw:** 15% - **Dundee win:** 11% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Hearts heavy favourites on paper as goals outlook leans low ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sun 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC in a Premiership fixture that pitches a clear home favourite against a travelling underdog[^fact-1][^fact-2]. The wider context is straightforward: the model assigns the home side a dominant match probability, a signal that should shape expectations about game management and risk-taking from the outset[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent strings underline the gap. The home side carries a WWWLL sequence in the last 10 matches and sits on a 7-1-2 record (W-D-L) across that sample, generating 2.20 points per game and averaging 2.20 goals scored while conceding 1.10 per match[^fact-4]. The visitors arrive with a mixed DLWWL run and a 5-1-4 record (W-D-L) from their last 10, producing 1.60 points per game with 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded on average[^fact-5]. Those recent outputs are consistent with a substantive underlying advantage in strength: the Elo differential, after applying home advantage, sits at +340 in favour of the home team[^fact-3]. The model’s outcome probabilities reflect that gap emphatically — Home 74%, Draw 15%, Away 11% — a 59 percentage-point gap between the favourite and the runner-up probability, indicating high confidence in the projected result[^fact-2]. ## Personnel There are a couple of clear form standouts and a couple of absentees that matter. On the home side, Cláudio Braga has contributed directly in recent matches with 1 goal and 2 assists across his last 4 appearances and carries an average match rating of 6.92 in that run[^fact-9]. For the visitors, Joe Westley is the principal attacking threat in the same short-form window, with 2 goals in his last 4 outings and an average rating of 6.72[^fact-10]. Availability will shape selection on both sides: Craig Halkett is listed out with injury after contributing 333 minutes in the recent run, a defensive absence that removes a significant minutes-earner from the home side’s recent pattern[^fact-11]. The visitors are also missing Callum Jones to injury, who accounted for 180 minutes in the recent sample[^fact-12]. Those absences narrow options and could affect defensive organisation for both teams on matchday[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons stand out where the model identifies pricing edges, with the model’s calculated percentages and the market prices noted below. First, the model prefers Under 2.5 goals at 55% probability versus a market price of 2.39 at Pinnacle, producing an edge of 13.4 percentage points and rated with high confidence by the model[^fact-6]. Second, the model’s Match Winner lean on the home side is stronger than the market: model 78% for Home versus a market price of 1.55 at 10Bet, an edge of 13.3 percentage points and high confidence[^fact-7]. Third, the model favours ‘No’ on Both Teams to Score at 61% against a market price of 2.10 at 10Bet, an edge of 13.0 percentage points and high confidence[^fact-8]. These three comparisons were the markets analysed for value against the model[^fact-13]. The quantitative picture behind those edges is coherent: a home team averaging 2.20 goals and conceding 1.10 over the recent sample paired with a visitors’ line that is only marginally more modest on attack and defence (1.40 scored, 1.20 conceded) points to a match that can be decided without extreme goal volatility[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The big Elo cushion and the absence of a key defensive starter for the home side complicate the interpretation — the favourite can both control the game and be exposed to moments if personnel disruption bites — which helps explain why the model favours both a clear home win probability and a low-goals projection simultaneously[^fact-3][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side — Home 74% — while also flagging a tilt toward a lower-scoring outcome and a reasonable probability that both teams will not score, producing clear market edges on Under 2.5, Home Match Winner, and No on BTTS[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 74% / Draw 15% / Away 11% (source: model; confidence high, 59 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HEA vs DUD — Elo differential +340 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HEA recent form** — WWWLL last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DUD recent form** — DLWWL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 55% vs market price 2.39 at Pinnacle, edge 13.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 78% vs market price 1.55 at 10Bet, edge 13.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 61% vs market price 2.10 at 10Bet, edge 13.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **HEA in-form player** — Cláudio Braga — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.92. [^fact-10]: **DUD in-form player** — Joe Westley — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.72. [^fact-11]: **HEA key absence** — Craig Halkett  out (injury), 333 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **DUD key absence** — Callum Jones  out (injury), 180 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .