# Hearts vs Dundee > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38323) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home advantage and an Elo gulf set a clear tone ## The stage This is a Premiership fixture kicking off Sun 6 Sep 2026 at 14:00 UTC, with Hearts at home and Dundee the visitors[^fact-1][^fact-3]. The timing and competition mean both sides are still shaping their early-season trajectories in a league context[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent form points to a marginally superior run for Hearts: a sequence shown as WWLLW in their last 10 that translates to a 6-2-2 record and 2.00 points per game[^fact-4]. That run also carries a goals profile of 2.10 scored and 1.20 conceded per match for Hearts[^fact-4]. Dundee arrive with LWWLW in their last 10, recorded as 5-1-4 and 1.60 points per game[^fact-5]. Their attacking and defensive per-match figures sit at 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded[^fact-5]. Beyond raw form, the model applies a substantial Elo cushion to the home side: Hearts begin with an Elo differential of +292 points after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. That differential is consistent with the model’s market-aligned probabilities, which put the home outcome at 61%, the draw at 24% and the away win at 16%[^fact-2]. The model’s confidence is notably high, signalled by a 37 percentage-point gap between the favourite and the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. Taken together, Hearts’ higher recent points-per-game, superior goals-scored rate and the sizeable Elo edge indicate momentum and underlying strength favouring the hosts[^fact-4][^fact-3]. Dundee’s form is patchier by comparison, with a lower PPG and a smaller attacking margin than Hearts[^fact-5]. ## Personnel Hearts’ most in-form contributor highlighted by recent output is Cláudio Braga, who has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances with an average match rating of 6.88[^fact-6]. That attacking return underpins the hosts’ 2.10 goals-per-game figure in the recent run[^fact-4][^fact-6]. A notable defensive absence for Hearts is Craig Halkett, who is out injured after logging 423 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-8]. Dundee’s leading recent form player is Drey Wright, with 2 goals across his last 4 appearances and an average rating of 6.95[^fact-7]. His scoring has been one of the more clear-cut attacking signals for Dundee in a period that otherwise yields 1.50 goals per match[^fact-5][^fact-7]. The visitors also have a named injury absence in Callum Jones, who is out after contributing 180 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9]. These personnel notes matter because Hearts’ attacking form is backed by a clear in-form creator, while Dundee’s attacking threat is more concentrated in Wright; both sides also face the disruption of losing players who featured recently, Hearts more heavily by minutes lost and Dundee to a lesser extent[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s primary output places the home win at 61%, the draw at 24% and the away win at 16%[^fact-2]. That distribution sits on top of an Elo gap of +292 in favour of the home side once venue is accounted for[^fact-3]. Markets have been compared against the model across 3 market(s), which is the scope of the analysis presented here[^fact-10]. Frames for market comparison are: the outright probabilities implied by the model, the match-level Elo signal, and the short-term form figures (points-per-game and goals per match) for both sides[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Against those inputs, the clearest edge is the model’s distance from a balanced market — the home outcome is emphasised by both Elo and recent scoring trends, creating a unified signal in favour of the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-4]. The model’s confidence gap — a 37-percentage-point separation to the runner-up outcome — further concentrates that signal[^fact-2]. Because three specific market strands were examined, those looking to evaluate market prices should treat the model’s 61/24/16 verdict as the baseline for where the model’s value resides, cross-checked against the market lines used in the 3 market comparison[^fact-2][^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model leans clearly to the home side: Hearts carry superior recent output, a significant Elo advantage and a demonstrable in-form attacking presence, while Dundee’s positives are narrower and their recorded PPG lower — the model’s 61% home probability reflects that synthesis[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-5][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 61% / Draw 24% / Away 16% (source: odds; confidence high, 37 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HEA vs DUD — Elo differential +292 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HEA recent form** — WWLLW last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DUD recent form** — LWWLW last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **HEA in-form player** — Cláudio Braga — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.88. [^fact-7]: **DUD in-form player** — Drey Wright — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.95. [^fact-8]: **HEA key absence** — Craig Halkett  out (injury), 423 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **DUD key absence** — Callum Jones  out (injury), 180 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .