# Sønderjyske Fodbold vs Horsens > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 6 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38327) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge looms despite poor recent form and key absences ## The stage This Superliga match kicks off Sun 6 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC and sees Sønderjyske (home) take on Horsens[^fact-1][^fact-3]. The fixture is a chance for both sides to arrest troubling runs and pick up points early in the campaign; the kickoff time is the only fixed scheduling detail available in the supplied facts[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent results frame this as a game between two struggling teams. Sønderjyske have produced LLDLL in their last 10, a 2-1-7 record worth 0.70 points per game, with 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Horsens’ sequence is LWWLL across ten, a 2-2-6 record worth 0.80 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.60 per match[^fact-5]. Those raw form lines are undercut and reframed by the underlying rating model: with home advantage applied Sønderjyske carry an Elo edge of +204 points over Horsens[^fact-3]. The model’s outcome probabilities mirror that edge — Home 47% / Draw 26% / Away 27% — and the homepage selection enjoys a clear confidence buffer, noted as a 20-percentage-point gap to the runner-up in the source odds assessment[^fact-2]. On form alone neither side looks in strong momentum; the Elo differential and model probabilities are the decisive signals pointing toward the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Sønderjyske’s most notable in-form performer in recent appearances is Mohamed Cherif Haidara: 2 goals, 0 assists across his last five outings with an average rating of 7.02[^fact-6]. Horsens’ primary attacking form reference is Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan, who has 3 goals, 0 assists in his last five and a 7.04 average rating[^fact-7]. Those two are the clearest sources of recent attacking output on either side and merit extra attention for chance-creation and finishing contributions[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Availability issues bite both teams. Sønderjyske will be without Daníel Leó Grétarsson through injury; he logged 590 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-8]. Horsens are missing Omar Jarju through injury[^fact-9]. Those absences remove minutes and continuity from each backline or midfield group and are relevant when assessing set-pieces and defensive organisation; the magnitude here is limited to the players cited in the supplied facts[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s primary market-facing take is the home bias: it prices Sønderjyske as the single likeliest outcome at 47% probability, a view derived from odds assessment and carrying a high confidence signal (20 percentage points clear of the next outcome)[^fact-2]. Three markets were analysed against the model to produce these comparisons, indicating a concise cross-check rather than a volumetric market sweep[^fact-10]. Because the supplied facts do not include raw market odds or specific market lines, the clearest statement that can be made from the comparison is directional: the model’s home probability sits notably in front of the alternatives and is supported by the +204 Elo edge with home advantage applied[^fact-2][^fact-3]. That combination — a substantive Elo cushion and a single-outcome model favourite — is the primary edge the quantitative view identifies versus the broader market sampling noted in the facts[^fact-3][^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side: Sønderjyske carry the statistical advantage (Elo +204 with home applied) and sit as the most likely outcome at 47% versus a 26% draw and 27% away chance, with a high-confidence gap to the runner-up in the odds-derived view[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Recent form and key absences blunt both attacks, so expect a tight, low-scoring contest where the hosts’ rating edge remains the decisive factor[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 6 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 47% / Draw 26% / Away 27% (source: odds; confidence high, 20 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SON vs ACH — Elo differential +204 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SON recent form** — LLDLL last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ACH recent form** — LWWLL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **SON in-form player** — Mohamed Cherif Haidara — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.02. [^fact-7]: **ACH in-form player** — Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-8]: **SON key absence** — Daníel Leó Grétarsson  out (injury), 590 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **ACH key absence** — Omar Jarju out (injury). [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .