# Sønderjyske Fodbold vs Horsens > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 6 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38327) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Sønderjyske Fodbold 2–5 Horsens ## Model verdict - **Sønderjyske Fodbold win:** 72% - **Draw:** 19% - **Horsens win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavily to the home side on clear statistical edges ## The stage Sønderjyske host Horsens in a Superliga fixture kicking off Sun 6 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The date and competition frame this as a league match with immediate points on offer; both sides arrive with form lines that make the fixture one of contrasting trajectories on paper[^fact-1][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Form & momentum The model gives the home side a dominant probability: Home 72% / Draw 19% / Away 9% — a wide gap driven by its internal certainty (confidence high, 53 pp gap to runner-up)[^fact-2]. That numerical lean sits alongside a very large Elo cushion: Sønderjyske carry an Elo differential advantage of +198 points once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Recent domestic form tells a slightly different, but consistent, story. Sønderjyske’s last 10 competitive matches read LLLDL (2-1-7), yielding 0.70 points per game with 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Horsens’ comparable ten-game sequence is LWWLL (2-2-6), producing 0.80 points per game with 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On raw outputs, neither side is prolific; Sønderjyske concedes more on average while Horsens scores marginally less — but the model’s heavier weighting of Elo and venue leans decisively toward the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Sønderjyske’s in-form contributor highlighted by the dataset is Maxime Soulas: 0 goals, 1 assist in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.21[^fact-8]. That suggests consistent defensive or build-up contributions rather than direct goal threat[^fact-8]. Sønderjyske also head into the match without Daníel Leó Grétarsson, who is out injured after contributing 590 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. His absence removes a significant chunk of recent minutes from the home side’s lineup[^fact-10]. Horsens’ attacking spark from the last five matches is Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan, who has scored 3 goals and posted an average rating of 7.04 across those appearances[^fact-9]. That individual form matters for an away side that otherwise produces about 1.00 goals per match in its recent sample[^fact-5][^fact-9]. Horsens will be without Omar Jarju through injury, a named absence in the available facts[^fact-11]. The combination of Ehibhatiomhan’s finishing and Jarju’s absence changes the balance of who must create or finish chances for the visitors[^fact-9][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags clear market inefficiency on the match-winner line, with Home in Match Winner priced at 2.28 at MansionBet while the model estimates a 73% probability for the home win — an edge of 28.9 percentage points and rated high confidence by the model[^fact-6]. That single-market discrepancy is the headline edge and aligns with both Elo and the model’s probability distribution[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6]. A secondary, lower-confidence edge appears on total goals: the model assigns a 54% probability to Under 2.5 goals while Unibet lists the market price at 2.08, giving an edge of 6.3 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-7]. This dovetails with both sides’ low scoring averages in the recent samples — 1.10 goals scored for Sønderjyske and 1.00 for Horsens — and the conceded rates that suggest matches can be low-scoring but not necessarily clean-sheet affairs[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7]. Three markets were analysed against the model to produce these edges, and the home match-winner emerges as the most pronounced discrepancy between model and market[^fact-12][^fact-6][^fact-7]. The model’s high confidence on the home probability amplifies that discrepancy into the primary value call[^fact-2][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is strong: it favours the home win (72%) with a significant Elo advantage (+198) and marks the Home match-winner as the clearest market inefficiency, while a modest secondary signal points to Under 2.5 goals[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 6 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 72% / Draw 19% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 53 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SON vs ACH — Elo differential +198 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SON recent form** — LLLDL last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ACH recent form** — LWWLL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 73% vs market price 2.28 at MansionBet, edge 28.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.08 at Unibet, edge 6.3 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **SON in-form player** — Maxime Soulas — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.21. [^fact-9]: **ACH in-form player** — Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.04. [^fact-10]: **SON key absence** — Daníel Leó Grétarsson  out (injury), 590 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **ACH key absence** — Omar Jarju out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .