# Odense BK vs FC København > Superliga · Kickoff Sun 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38328) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Odense BK 0–5 FC København ## Model verdict - **Odense BK win:** 21% - **Draw:** 17% - **FC København win:** 63% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Visitors start as heavy favourites after pronounced Elo gap ## The stage This Superliga fixture kicks off Sun 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The match is presented as a clear test of hierarchy rather than a neutral toss-up: the model gives the home side a 21% chance, a draw 17%, and the away side 63% — a 42 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and a high-confidence verdict[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form charts a lopsided trajectory. Odense BK’s last 10 matches read DDLLW (2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses), with 0.90 points per game, 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. FC København’s sequence is WWLWW (8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss over their last 10), posting 2.50 points per game, 3.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo comparison, with home advantage applied, shows Odense trailing by 165 points relative to København[^fact-3], a margin that aligns with the model’s strong lean to the visitors[^fact-2]. Taken together, form and Elo both point to Københavns’s clear momentum edge[^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Odense’s most in-form attacking outlet in the run-in is Fiete Arp, who has two goals and zero assists in his last three appearances and carries an average rating of 7.26 over those games[^fact-8]. Odense also faces a notable absence: Jona Niemiec is out with injury after contributing 317 minutes in this recent run[^fact-10]. København’s front line has been powered by Mohamed Elyounoussi, who recorded five goals and one assist in his last four appearances with an average rating of 7.98[^fact-9]; however, Elyounoussi is listed out injured after supplying 742 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Those availability notes remove a key attacking piece from each side and force both teams to rejig attacking rhythms around their in-form threats and replacements[^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were analysed against the model[^fact-12]. The clearest single-market edge is on Total Goals Over 2.5: the model assigns a 67% probability to over 2.5 goals while the market price at Pinnacle sits at 1.60, producing a model-market edge of +4.9 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-6]. The second spot of value is Both Teams to Score: the model gives 68% for BTTS while the market at bet365 prices it 1.57, an edge of +4.0 percentage points (low confidence)[^fact-7]. Both edges are consistent with the match context: København’s recent return of 3.00 goals per match and Odense’s 1.10 goals per match leave room for a fixture where multiple goals and exchanged strikes are plausible even if one side is superior on paper[^fact-5][^fact-4]. The model’s own distribution of match outcomes — favouring the visitor with 63% probability — sits alongside these market edges rather than contradicting them: a dominant away win still permits a high-scoring game or both teams finding the net, depending on how each side compensates for missing personnel[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly to the away side at 63% with a 42 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and high confidence, driven by København’s superior recent form and a 165-point Elo advantage (home-adjusted)[^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-3]. Secondary considerations — the absence of each team’s cited key player and the attacking numbers — keep Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score as the markets where the model identifies the clearest edges against public prices[^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 21% / Draw 17% / Away 63% (source: model; confidence high, 42 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ODE vs COP — Elo differential -165 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ODE recent form** — DDLLW last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **COP recent form** — WWLWW last 10: 8-1-1 (W-D-L), 2.50 PPG, 3.00 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 67% vs market price 1.60 at Pinnacle, edge 4.9 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 68% vs market price 1.57 at bet365, edge 4.0 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **ODE in-form player** — Fiete Arp — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.26. [^fact-9]: **COP in-form player** — Mohamed Elyounoussi — 5 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.98. [^fact-10]: **ODE key absence** — Jona Niemiec  out (injury), 317 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **COP key absence** — Mohamed Elyounoussi out (injury), 742 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .