# Hearts vs St. Mirren > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38351) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy-favourites on paper after wide Elo and market gap ## The stage This Premiership fixture kicks off on Sat 10 Oct 2026 at 14:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The match is framed as a home assignment for Hearts, with the model incorporating home advantage into its assessment[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Hearts arrive in healthier form over the recent run, posting a DLWWW sequence in their last 10 matches and delivering a 5-2-3 (W-D-L) record, yielding 1.70 points per game and averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. St. Mirren’s recent pattern reads LLLWD across their last 10, with a 4-3-3 (W-D-L) ledger, 1.50 points per game and averages of 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those on-pitch trends sit alongside a striking Elo differential: Hearts hold a +383 Elo edge after home advantage is applied, an input that pushes probability in Hearts’ direction on talent and recent-performance modelling[^fact-3]. The model translates those inputs into a clear market stance: Home 65% / Draw 20% / Away 15% according to the odds-derived verdict, a 45 percentage-point gap from the runner-up confidence level and a definitive skew toward the hosts[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Hearts’ most in-form contributor highlighted by the data is Josh McPake, whose last appearance returned 0 goals and 1 assist with an average match rating of 7.40[^fact-6]. By contrast, St. Mirren’s attacking spark in recent data is Samuel Ramos, who produced 1 goal and 2 assists in his last appearance and carries an average rating of 8.45 in that sample[^fact-7]. Absences matter: Hearts will be without Blair Spittal through injury after Spittal logged 419 minutes in the recent run before his withdrawal from selection[^fact-8]. St. Mirren have a notable absentee in Killian Phillips, who is out injured after compiling 180 minutes in the recent period[^fact-9]. Those minutes totals underline the extent of each player’s recent involvement and the specific loss each side must manage[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s aggregate view places a substantial edge on the home outcome at 65% versus the market’s other probabilities, and the model comparison covered 3 markets in the analysis[^fact-2][^fact-10]. The Elo cushion of +383 points with home advantage applied is the primary structural reason the model discounts an away outcome and leans into the hosts[^fact-3]. Relative scoring and concession rates sharpen that picture: Hearts’ 1.90 goals-scored average against 1.20 conceded per match in the recent sample suggests a positive expected-goals tilt versus St. Mirren’s 1.10 scored and 1.10 conceded figures, supporting the stronger home probability[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The absence of Blair Spittal (419 minutes in the recent run) is a material personnel subtraction for Hearts to manage, but it has not inverted the model’s edge[^fact-8]. On St. Mirren’s side, losing Killian Phillips after 180 minutes in recent action is flagged in the data, but it is insufficient to close the gap implied by Elo and the model’s odds-derived verdict[^fact-9][^fact-3][^fact-2]. Markets analysed numbered three in total, and those comparisons reinforced the model’s tilt toward the home side rather than exposing a clear mismatch the market had missed[^fact-10][^fact-2]. The standalone player-level notes are mixed: Samuel Ramos’s recent 1 goal and 2 assists with a 8.45 rating is a concentrated source of threat for St. Mirren, while Josh McPake’s contribution is more modest in counting stats but solid in average rating at 7.40[^fact-7][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side — a 65% probability for Hearts — driven by a +383 Elo edge with home advantage, stronger recent attacking numbers and the market comparisons performed across three markets[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 65% / Draw 20% / Away 15% (source: odds; confidence high, 45 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HEA vs STM — Elo differential +383 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HEA recent form** — DLWWW last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **STM recent form** — LLLWD last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **HEA in-form player** — Josh McPake — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 1 appearances, avg rating 7.40. [^fact-7]: **STM in-form player** — Samuel Ramos — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 1 appearances, avg rating 8.45. [^fact-8]: **HEA key absence** — Blair Spittal out (injury), 419 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **STM key absence** — Killian Phillips out (injury), 180 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .