# Horsens vs Randers FC > Superliga · Kickoff Fri 16 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38361) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Low-scoring tilt looms as form and absences shape contest ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Fri 16 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC in a Superliga fixture that matters most for week-by-week momentum rather than a title sprint or relegation cliff — a mid-season point where small margins decide confidence and league position swings[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Horsens arrive with a mixed sequence: DLWLW over the last ten matches, recording 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats and averaging 1.20 points per game, 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-2]. That profile suggests a side that can both score and be scored against at relatively balanced rates. Randers carry a cooler recent run: LLWWL in their last ten, translating to 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats, with 1.00 points per game, 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-3]. The contrast is simple — Horsens are producing slightly more outcomes that avoid defeat and are marginally healthier in attack and defence on per-match figures[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Horsens’ in-form outlet is Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan, who has netted 3 goals in his last 5 appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.09 in that span[^fact-4]. His scoring sequence provides a clear attacking focal point for a side averaging 1.50 goals per game recently[^fact-2][^fact-4]. The home side will be missing Omar Jarju through injury, a named absence that removes squad depth for this match[^fact-6]. Randers’ brightest individual form comes from Elies Mahmoud, who has 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and sits on an average rating of 7.37 for that period — the club’s most productive recent match-level contributor on the supplied stats[^fact-5]. Randers will be without Mike Themsen due to injury; Themsen logged 760 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence, a loss of substantial minutes for their available personnel[^fact-7]. The combination of Mahmoud’s form and Themsen’s missing minutes frames Randers as a side with a standout match-winner but reduced rotation options[^fact-5][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value The internal model was compared against one market for this fixture, highlighting discrete edges relative to public pricing[^fact-8]. On the supplied data set the clearest structural advantage is Horsens’ slightly better recent points yield (1.20 PPG) and higher goals-for rate (1.50) versus Randers’ 1.00 PPG and 1.10 scoring rate; those deltas underpin a tilt toward Horsens in expected match control and chance creation[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Defensively, Randers concede at 1.90 per game compared with Horsens’ 1.60, which increases the probability of both teams finding the net or of multiple goals when Randers attack — but also raises the bar for Randers to secure a clean sheet[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Individually, both teams possess one in-form finisher: Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan for Horsens (3 goals, avg rating 7.09 over five) and Elies Mahmoud for Randers (3 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.37 over five). Those concentrated attacking returns suggest any model edge should account for goal-contribution volatility from these men rather than broad team scoring reliability[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Personnel losses are material: Horsens lose Omar Jarju to injury, while Randers’ absence of Mike Themsen removes a player who supplied 760 minutes in the recent run — a non-trivial chunk of playing time that alters rotation and match-planning[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Because the only market analysed was a single reference point, the model’s margin over that market is a narrow read built on these per-match rates and recent minute-loss impacts rather than an abundance of comparative prices[^fact-8]. The dataset points toward two practical edges: (1) a modest expectancy that Horsens will be marginally better in attack and slightly steadier overall given their superior PPG and goals-for figures[^fact-2][^fact-3], and (2) an elevated chance of goals from both sides or a game with multiple incidents given Randers’ higher goals-conceded rate and the finishing form of the two highlighted forwards[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans to Horsens as the structurally preferable side on form and attacking rhythm, while flagging the match as susceptible to goals because of Randers’ defensive fragility and both teams’ in-form forwards — a tight edge driven by recent per-match numbers and two key injuries altering squad depth[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 16 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **ACH recent form** — DLWLW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **RDF recent form** — LLWWL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **ACH in-form player** — Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.09. [^fact-5]: **RDF in-form player** — Elies Mahmoud — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.37. [^fact-6]: **ACH key absence** — Omar Jarju out (injury). [^fact-7]: **RDF key absence** — Mike Themsen out (injury), 760 minutes in recent run. [^fact-8]: **Markets analysed** — 1 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .