# Celtic vs Hearts > Premiership · Kickoff Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38370) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Big Elo gap and model tilt make home side heavy favourites ## The stage This Premiership fixture kicks off on Sun 18 Oct 2026 at 14:00 UTC, with the home side hosting their visitors in a match that looks set to reinforce the domestic pecking order[^fact-1]. The result matters as a routine top-flight meeting, and the model already assigns a pronounced home advantage to the hosts[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Form tables point in the same direction as the model. The home side’s recent ten-match sequence reads WLWWW, equating to 8-1-1 (W-D-L) and 2.50 points per game; they score 2.10 and concede 0.70 per match in that run[^fact-4]. The visitors arrive with a respectable run of WDLWW, which is 6-1-3 (W-D-L) and 1.90 points per game; their attack is ticking at 2.30 goals scored per match while conceding 1.10[^fact-5]. On Elo, the hosts carry a substantial edge: a +213-point differential after home advantage is applied, signalling a clear quality gap between the two sides[^fact-3]. Taken together, domestic form and Elo both favour the hosts, though the visitors’ attacking numbers over the recent sample suggest they will not be powerless going forward[^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel The hosts have an in-form attacking presence in Mika Baur, who has 1 goal and 0 assists in his last 2 appearances and an average rating of 7.32 across those games[^fact-6]. On the other flank, the visitors lean on Josh McPake as a key creator: 0 goals and 2 assists in his last 3 appearances with an average rating of 7.12[^fact-7]. Availability has an impact on both sides: the home team will be without Cameron Carter-Vickers due to injury, a player who logged 422 minutes in the recent run[^fact-8]. The visitors are missing Blair Spittal through injury, who contributed 332 minutes in the same recent window[^fact-9]. These absences matter primarily for squad depth and defensive familiarity rather than forcing wholesale tactical reinventions, given the minutes totals recorded[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The quantitative verdict is concentrated. The model-derived market probabilities are Home 63%, Draw 21% and Away 16% — a clear tilt to the home outcome with a 42 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and high confidence attached to that separation[^fact-2]. That confidence is informed by the pronounced Elo gap of +213 in the hosts’ favour[^fact-3] and by the hosts’ superior recent points per game and defensive record in the ten-match sample[^fact-4]. Markets were analysed across 3 different prices against the model, and those comparisons produce the clearest discrepancy on the home probability given the inputs[^fact-10][^fact-2]. Practical framing: the model’s home probability (63%) is the dominant signal both statistically and contextually—Elo backing plus superior recent form and a better defensive record in the sample all point the same way[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. The visitors’ attacking output in the ten-match window (2.30 goals per game) offers a counterpoint and is the most likely avenue for an upset or an underpriced draw, but that offensive metric sits against a smaller overall sample advantage and a clear Elo shortfall[^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the hosts: Home 63% / Draw 21% / Away 16%, a stance reinforced by a +213 Elo edge and the hosts’ stronger recent defensive numbers[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. Absent late personnel news beyond the confirmed injuries to Cameron Carter-Vickers and Blair Spittal, the data picture is straightforward and the home side enters as the clear favourite[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 63% / Draw 21% / Away 16% (source: odds; confidence high, 42 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CEL vs HEA — Elo differential +213 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CEL recent form** — WLWWW last 10: 8-1-1 (W-D-L), 2.50 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HEA recent form** — WDLWW last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 2.30 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **CEL in-form player** — Mika Baur — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 7.32. [^fact-7]: **HEA in-form player** — Josh McPake — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.12. [^fact-8]: **CEL key absence** — Cameron Carter-Vickers  out (injury), 422 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **HEA key absence** — Blair Spittal out (injury), 332 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .