# St. Mirren vs Dundee > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38374) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge slim as form points toward a cagey encounter ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC in a Premiership fixture[^fact-1]. The match sits in the context of league positioning where small margins matter; the pre-match model gives the home side a narrow lead in probability with a 46% chance, while the draw and away outcomes sit at 26% and 28% respectively[^fact-2]. The same modelling pipeline notes an 18 percentage-point gap to the runner-up probability, highlighting a relatively clear favourite signal even if not overwhelming[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results point to contrasting trajectories. St. Mirren’s last ten show a LLLLL sequence in the most recent run and a 4-1-5 W-D-L split over ten matches, yielding 1.30 points per game and an output of 1.00 goals scored against 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Dundee arrive with stronger recent numbers: a DWWLD run and a 5-2-3 record in their last ten, producing 1.70 points per game and 1.60 goals scored against 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On Elo terms, with home advantage applied the edge is tiny — a -2 point differential for the home side, underlining that the sides are effectively level on a form-adjusted quality metric[^fact-3]. Taken together, the surface read is that Dundee carry more momentum in results and defensive solidity, while the home team has struggled both for points and goals in recent weeks[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel In-form spotlight: Jacob Chapman for the home side has produced 0 goals and 0 assists in his last two appearances but holds an average rating of 7.71 across those matches[^fact-6]. For the visitors, Bradley Fink has registered 2 goals and 0 assists in his last two appearances, with an average rating of 6.93 in that same window[^fact-7]. The clearest absence on the teamsheet is Killian Phillips missing through injury, having contributed 246 minutes in the recent run when available[^fact-8]. Those minutes suggest Phillips has been a non-trivial presence for the home side when fit, and his unavailability materialises as the most significant personnel change listed[^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value Markets analysed number three in total versus the model’s outputs, giving a limited but focused cross-check against public pricing[^fact-9]. The model’s probability set — Home 46% / Draw 26% / Away 28% — drives the clearest edge: a home bias that is small but persistent relative to the sides’ near-par Elo and contrasting recent forms[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. The most pronounced statistical discrepancy flagged by the modelling is an 18 percentage-point cushion between the model’s top pick and the runner-up probability, a sign that one outcome (the home win) is the model’s preferred conclusion even if underlying match metrics point to a tight contest[^fact-2]. Given Dundee’s superior points-per-game and better defensive concession rate over the recent sample, the model’s lean toward the home outcome represents the primary explicit divergence between outcome probabilities and on-pitch recent form[^fact-5][^fact-4]. The three-market review did not alter that headline tilt but did frame it as a narrow, quantitatively guarded preference rather than a categorical call[^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model leans toward the home side with a 46% probability, but the match shapes as a close, low-margin game: Elo is effectively level with a -2 point home differential, Dundee bring stronger recent form and defensive numbers, and the absence of Killian Phillips removes a meaningful 246 minutes of recent input for the hosts — all of which tempers the home lean[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 46% / Draw 26% / Away 28% (source: odds; confidence high, 18 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STM vs DUD — Elo differential -2 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STM recent form** — LLLLL last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DUD recent form** — DWWLD last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **STM in-form player** — Jacob Chapman — 0 goals, 0 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 7.71. [^fact-7]: **DUD in-form player** — Bradley Fink — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 6.93. [^fact-8]: **STM key absence** — Killian Phillips out (injury), 246 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .