# FC København vs Odense BK > Superliga · Kickoff Mon 26 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/38384) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy Elo gap and home bias point to Copenhagen dominance ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Mon 26 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC in Superliga competition[^fact-1]. The market-adjusted model places a strong home probability at 70% versus 12% for the away side, with draws at 19% — a spread that reflects a clear favourite and a large confidence gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum FC København arrive on noticeably superior recent returns: the sequence provided shows DLWWW across the last 10 outings, recorded as 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, yielding 2.20 points per game and an average of 2.20 goals scored while conceding 0.90 per match[^fact-4]. Odense BK’s last-10 read WDDWL — 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses — amounting to 1.30 points per game with 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded on average[^fact-5]. The model’s Elo view applies a very large edge to the home side: an Elo differential of +338 points after home advantage is applied, which underlines the gap in underlying quality between the two squads[^fact-3]. ## Personnel The key in-form performer highlighted for FC København is Felix Beijmo, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his past three appearances and carries an average rating of 7.45 across that run[^fact-6]. For Odense BK the standout is Topi Keskinen, who matches Beijmo’s recent direct returns with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last three and an average rating of 7.44[^fact-7]. Availability shifts are material: Mohamed Elyounoussi is absent for FC København through injury after contributing 523 minutes in the recent run[^fact-8]. Odense are also without Jona Niemiec, who has only 30 minutes in the recent run and is listed out with injury[^fact-9]. Those absences remove familiar minutes for both sides and shape selection choices without changing the basic balance of modelled strength. ## Where the model sees value The model’s verdict is materially more bullish than a coin-flip: 70% for the home outcome, 19% draw, 12% away[^fact-2]. That probability profile sits alongside an Elo cushion of +338 in Copenhagen’s favour[^fact-3], and it contrasts with the recent per-game figures — Copenhagen scoring 2.20 and conceding 0.90 per match in their window[^fact-4] versus Odense’s 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded[^fact-5]. Three markets were compared against the model when deriving these edges, giving a market-reference context to the numbers[^fact-10]. The clearest edge, therefore, is a market-to-model gap on the straight home outcome given the model’s 70% assignment[^fact-2] coupled with the +338 Elo advantage[^fact-3]. Secondary informational edges emerge around expectations for goal volume: Copenhagen’s 2.20 goals-per-match profile and sub-1.00 concession rate point to a side that both creates and limits chances in its recent sample[^fact-4], whereas Odense’s higher concession rate (1.40) and lower scoring (1.00) imply more defensive exposure[^fact-5]. Finally, personnel risk adjusts these valuations: Elyounoussi’s absence removes 523 minutes of recent contribution for Copenhagen[^fact-8], and Odense’s Niemiec is out after 30 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9], factors that should temper any projection but do not overturn the model’s primary home tilt[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The quantitative picture is unambiguous: a 70% model lean to the home side backed by a +338 Elo differential and superior recent per-game outputs for FC København[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. Personnel losses on both sides are noted but insufficient to close the underlying quality gap shown by the model and markets comparison across three analysed markets[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 26 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 70% / Draw 19% / Away 12% (source: odds; confidence high, 51 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — COP vs ODE — Elo differential +338 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **COP recent form** — DLWWW last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ODE recent form** — WDDWL last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **COP in-form player** — Felix Beijmo — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.45. [^fact-7]: **ODE in-form player** — Topi Keskinen — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.44. [^fact-8]: **COP key absence** — Mohamed Elyounoussi out (injury), 523 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **ODE key absence** — Jona Niemiec  out (injury), 30 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .