# Paderborn vs Karlsruher SC > 2. Bundesliga · Kickoff Fri 8 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/649) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Paderborn 2–2 Karlsruher SC ## Model verdict - **Paderborn win:** 82% - **Draw:** 11% - **Karlsruher SC win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Paderborn heavy favourites as margin in form and Elo tells the story ## The stage This is a Friday fixture in the 2. Bundesliga kicking off on Fri 8 May 2026, 16:30 UTC. [^fact-1] The details of the venue are not supplied in the dataset; attention should therefore centre on the timing and competition. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum Paderborn arrive on the back of a recent sequence rendered LLDWW over their last ten matches, logged as a 5-3-2 W‑D‑L split and producing 1.80 points per game with 2.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-4] Karlsruher SC’s ten-match reading is WLLWL, written as 5-1-4 W‑D‑L, earning 1.60 points per game with 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5] Those numbers frame a close offensive balance — both sides average 1.90 goals for/against ranges — but the model and ratings systems give a clear structural edge to the hosts: an Elo differential of +192 points in Paderborn’s favour after home advantage is applied. [^fact-3] The model synthesises these inputs into outcome probabilities that are heavily skewed toward the home side, producing a Home 82% / Draw 11% / Away 7% distribution with a high-confidence gap to the runner-up. [^fact-2] ## Personnel Paderborn’s attacking pulse in recent weeks has a name: Filip Bilbija, who has delivered five goals and zero assists across his last five appearances while carrying an average match rating of 7.26. [^fact-6] A notable absence for Paderborn is Raphael Obermair, sidelined through injury after contributing 658 minutes in the recent run before the layoff. [^fact-8] Karlsruher SC’s creative fulcrum shown in the data is Marvin Wanitzek, with two goals, three assists and an average rating of 7.79 over his last five appearances. [^fact-7] Karlsruher SC will also be without Stephan Ambrosius due to injury; Ambrosius had accounted for 786 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence. [^fact-9] These personnel notes are the primary inputs the model uses to refine match-level probabilities; the differential in attacking form sits with Paderborn via Bilbija’s scoring rate while Wanitzek remains the clearest chance-creation outlet for the visitors. [^fact-6] [^fact-7] ## Where the model sees value The model’s probability split is starkly tilted: Home 82%, Draw 11%, Away 7%, and the model reports high confidence in that ordering. [^fact-2] Markets were compared against the model across three distinct market lines. [^fact-10] Given the Elo gap of +192 points for Paderborn with home advantage applied, the largest single structural edge resides in backing the home side to win as the base outcome priced by the market. [^fact-3] [^fact-2] Because both teams’ recent scoring rates cluster tightly (Paderborn 2.20 scored/1.90 conceded; Karlsruher 1.90 scored/1.80 conceded), the model does not materially inflate an expectation of an unusually high-scoring affair beyond those season-to-date per-match rates. [^fact-4] [^fact-5] The most actionable divergence between model and market, as flagged by the comparative analysis of three markets, lies in the market pricing of outright outcome probability rather than niche props; the model’s 82% home probability and the 192‑point Elo edge drive that signal. [^fact-10] [^fact-2] [^fact-3] ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward a Paderborn win: home victory is the primary expectation on the available evidence, supported by an Elo advantage and the model’s 82% home probability while accounting for key absences and the recent form of Bilbija and Wanitzek. [^fact-2] [^fact-3] [^fact-6] [^fact-7] [^fact-8] [^fact-9] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 8 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — 2. Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 82% / Draw 11% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 71 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — PAD vs Karlsruher SC — Elo differential +192 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **PAD recent form** — LLDWW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Karlsruher SC recent form** — WLLWL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **PAD in-form player** — Filip Bilbija — 5 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.26. [^fact-7]: **Karlsruher SC in-form player** — Marvin Wanitzek — 2 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.79. [^fact-8]: **PAD key absence** — Raphael Obermair out (injury), 658 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **Karlsruher SC key absence** — Stephan Ambrosius out (injury), 786 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .