# Viborg FF vs Sønderjyske Fodbold > Superliga · Kickoff Fri 8 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/652) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Viborg FF 0–1 Sønderjyske Fodbold ## Model verdict - **Viborg FF win:** 48% - **Draw:** 22% - **Sønderjyske Fodbold win:** 31% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans home as Viborg’s Elo advantage dominates narrative ## The stage This one kicks off on Fri 8 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC in Superliga competition[^fact-1]. The simple framing for the fixture is a home side with the model slightly favoured, a draw as the least likely outcome and an away team trying to buckle down against a clear Elo edge[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Viborg arrive with a recent sequence of DWLLW in their last ten outings, translating to a 4-2-4 W-D-L split and 1.40 points per game; they average 1.40 goals scored and concede 1.50 per match in that run[^fact-4]. Sønderjyske’s run reads LWLLL over their last ten, a 2-3-5 W-D-L record with 0.90 points per game and averages of 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded[^fact-5]. The Elo picture sharpens the gap: with home advantage applied Viborg sit +177 Elo points ahead of Sønderjyske[^fact-3]. The model’s probability mix — Home 48% / Draw 22% / Away 31% — encapsulates that split between a meaningful home edge and a still-relevant away upset chance[^fact-2]. Taken together, the numbers describe a marginal favourite that carries structural superiority yet has not been dominant in recent scoring; the opponents are underperforming on both points and goals but remain dangerous enough to occupy almost a third of model probability[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Viborg’s in-form mention is Dorian Hanza, who has 1 goal and 1 assist across his last four appearances and an average rating of 6.93 in those games[^fact-6]. For Sønderjyske the standout is O. Hyseni, with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five outings and an average rating of 7.32 across that sample[^fact-7]. In availability terms both sides will be without a recent-minute contributor: Viborg are missing Mads Søndergaard, who supplied 579 minutes in the recent run and is out injured[^fact-8]; Sønderjyske are without Marcus Bundgaard, who accounted for 509 minutes during the same period and is also absent through injury[^fact-9]. Those absences strip match-sharp minutes from each squad and shift where coaches must replace continuity on the pitch[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s single-line snapshot gives Viborg the largest share at 48%, with draw scenarios the least likely at 22% and Sønderjyske retaining a 31% chance[^fact-2]. That probability split sits on top of an Elo differential of +177 for the home side once venue has been applied[^fact-3], a clear structural argument for expecting Viborg to control key phases of the match. Market analysis compared three lines against the model, highlighting divergence between market prices and model probabilities across multiple bet types[^fact-10]. Because markets were analysed across three markets against the model, the clearest non-speculative interpretation is directional: the model identifies the home side as the single most probable outcome while markets offer varying degrees of appetite for draws and away shocks, creating discrete edges in match-outcome pricing and possibly in alternative markets that track goals or specific player impact[^fact-2][^fact-10]. The model’s confidence — expressed as a 17 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome — underlines which result it ranks as the primary lean[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side as the nominal favourite, driven by a +177 Elo advantage and a 48% match win probability; Viborg’s recent form and the presence of Dorian Hanza as a contributor support that lean, while Sønderjyske’s O. Hyseni and the visitors’ non-negligible 31% model chance keep the tie from being a foregone conclusion[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Markets were compared across three markets against the model for final calibration[^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 8 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Superliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 48% / Draw 22% / Away 31% (source: model; confidence high, 17 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Viborg FF vs SON — Elo differential +177 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Viborg FF recent form** — DWLLW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SON recent form** — LWLLL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Viborg FF in-form player** — Dorian Hanza — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.93. [^fact-7]: **SON in-form player** — O. Hyseni — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.32. [^fact-8]: **Viborg FF key absence** — Mads Søndergaard out (injury), 579 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **SON key absence** — Marcus Bundgaard out (injury), 509 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .