# Cádiz vs Deportivo La Coruña > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Fri 8 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/655) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Cádiz 0–1 Deportivo La Coruña ## Model verdict - **Cádiz win:** 9% - **Draw:** 22% - **Deportivo La Coruña win:** 69% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavily to Deportivo after Cádiz slump ## The stage This meeting arrives at kickoff on Fri 8 May 2026, 18:30 UTC in La Liga 2[^fact-1]. The fixture carries typical late-season gravity for both sides: point accumulation and momentum heading into the final stretch, with Cádiz listed as the home team and Deportivo La Coruña travelling[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Form trends make the contest feel one-sided. Cádiz arrive in a deep slide with a last-10 record of DLLLL — 1 win, 1 draw and 8 defeats — producing just 0.40 points per game while scoring 0.70 goals and conceding 2.00 per match[^fact-4]. Deportivo La Coruña are markedly hotter: WDWDD in their last 10, a 5-4-1 split yielding 1.90 points per game with 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded on average[^fact-5]. The model reflects that gulf decisively: Home 9% / Draw 22% / Away 69%, a three-way probability set that makes Deportivo overwhelming favourites in the engine’s view[^fact-2]. That signal sits on top of a large Elo gap: Cádiz carry a -195 point differential against Deportivo after home advantage was applied, a structural indicator that aligns with the model’s heavy lean[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Cádiz’s most-notable in-form outlet is Suso, who has provided 0 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances while averaging a 6.97 rating across those matches[^fact-6]. The loss of Jon Ander Garrido to injury is the clearest absentee for Cádiz and must be factored into midfield balance and defensive cover[^fact-8]. Deportivo’s standout contributor in recent weeks has been Luismi Cruz, with 1 goal and 2 assists in his last five matches and an average match rating of 7.33[^fact-7]. Deportivo will also be without David Mella due to injury; the available detail notes 63 minutes in his recent run before the absence was recorded[^fact-9]. These named individuals shape the immediate tactical risks: Cádiz are short in midfield with Garrido missing and will look to Suso for creativity[^fact-8][^fact-6]; Deportivo lose Mella’s minutes but retain Luismi Cruz as a clear attacking fulcrum[^fact-9][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value Three market lines were analysed against the model’s probabilities, producing consistent edges when the market prices diverge from the engine’s output[^fact-10]. The most salient informational edges derive from the model’s 69% probability for an away win and the -195 Elo differential after home advantage — both suggest markets underpricing Deportivo relative to model-implied chances[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Conversely, Cádiz’s 9% model probability and the recent form indicators that show 0.40 PPG and a defensive leak of 2.00 expected goals conceded per match point to markets that may be overrating any home-rescue narratives[^fact-2][^fact-4]. The draw band at 22% occupies a middle ground that reflects some mitigation of variance, but the engine’s confidence gap (47 percentage points to the runner-up) underscores how decisive the model views the away outcome[^fact-2]. Because only three markets were compared, the strongest and most consistent signal is the gulf between model-implied away probability and market odds where Deportivo are offered shorter lines than the model requires to be neutral — an information asymmetry driven by form and Elo alignment[^fact-10][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is clear: Deportivo La Coruña are strong favourites to take this match, a view underpinned by a 69% away probability, a -195 Elo differential with home advantage applied, and a sustained difference in recent form that favours the visitors[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. The combination of Cádiz’s severe form collapse and key midfield absence compounds the challenge for the home side[^fact-4][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 8 May 2026, 18:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 22% / Away 69% (source: model; confidence high, 47 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CAD vs COR — Elo differential -195 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CAD recent form** — DLLLL last 10: 1-1-8 (W-D-L), 0.40 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **COR recent form** — WDWDD last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **CAD in-form player** — Suso — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.97. [^fact-7]: **COR in-form player** — Luismi Cruz — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.33. [^fact-8]: **CAD key absence** — Jon Ander Garrido out (injury). [^fact-9]: **COR key absence** — David Mella out (injury), 63 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .