# Südtirol vs Juve Stabia > Serie B · Kickoff Fri 8 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/659) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Südtirol 1–1 Juve Stabia ## Model verdict - **Südtirol win:** 26% - **Draw:** 37% - **Juve Stabia win:** 37% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Low-scoring grind likely as model splits on outcome ## The stage This fixture pits Südtirol[^fact-3] against Juve Stabia[^fact-3] in Serie B, with kickoff at Fri 8 May 2026, 18:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The match sits inside a congested run of late-season business and carries the usual binary consequences of Serie B encounters: points for survival, consolidation or late pushes[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent form points to two teams moving in opposite directions on paper. Südtirol arrive on a run recorded as LLLDD over the last 10 matches, an output that equates to 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses, generating 0.60 points per game with 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Juve Stabia’s last-10 string reads LDDWL — 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses — yielding 1.10 points per game with 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s probabilistic view is unusually split: it gives the home side 26% while assigning a 37% chance each to a draw and an away win, and it notes low confidence with a 0 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. Elo, with home advantage applied, still tips slightly toward Südtirol by 13 points, a slim edge rather than a commanding gulf[^fact-3]. The composite picture is of a fixture where Juve Stabia bring marginally better recent efficiency, but Südtirol retain a faint structural advantage in quality as measured by Elo[^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Südtirol’s most notable in-form attacking presence in recent appearances is Nicola Pietrangeli, who has one goal and no assists across his last five outings and carries an average match rating of 6.59[^fact-6]. The side will also be missing Filipe Bordon due to injury; he featured 74 minutes on average in the recent run before his absence was logged[^fact-8]. Those two data points frame a question about Südtirol’s depth and chance creation: a modest end-product from Pietrangeli and a loss of minutes from Bordon[^fact-6][^fact-8]. Juve Stabia’s stand-out formful contributor is Lorenzo Carissoni, with two goals and no assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.95[^fact-7]. The visitors are hindered by the absence of Salim Diakité through injury; Diakité accumulated 633 minutes in the recent run prior to being ruled out[^fact-9]. Carissoni’s finishing uptick and Diakité’s minutes lost frame Juve Stabia as a side that could lack a specific defensive or midfield rhythm while retaining a player who has been delivering the clearest attacking returns[^fact-7][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value — top edges vs the market (with odds) The model's distribution is tightly clustered: Home 26% / Draw 37% / Away 37% with declared low confidence and no gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. Three markets were compared against the model when assembling this view[^fact-10]. That combination of a three-way split and limited model confidence implies the largest edges, if any, will be in markets that reward low-scoring, narrow-margin outcomes rather than clear-win markets[^fact-2][^fact-10]. Because Elo favours Südtirol only marginally (+13 with home advantage applied) and Juve Stabia show better recent points-per-game and defensive solidity in the sample provided, the model’s parity between draw and away outcome points to market inefficiencies around draws and under/low-goal lines rather than outright favourites[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. Markets that price a draw or tight scorelines more expensively than the model’s near-symmetric probabilities are the obvious friction points to scrutinise[^fact-2][^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model leans to a tightly contested game with the highest single probability on a draw and identical probabilities for an away win and the draw at 37% each, while still giving the home side a smaller chance at 26% — a position flagged with low confidence[^fact-2]. Given the recent outputs — Südtirol’s negative goal difference and low scoring, Juve Stabia’s slightly better points return and more consistent defensive numbers — expect a cramped game where fine margins and small personnel changes could decide the result[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 8 May 2026, 18:30 UTC — Serie B [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 26% / Draw 37% / Away 37% (source: model; confidence low, 0 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SUD vs JUV — Elo differential +13 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SUD recent form** — LLLDD last 10: 1-3-6 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **JUV recent form** — LDDWL last 10: 2-5-3 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **SUD in-form player** — Nicola Pietrangeli — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.59. [^fact-7]: **JUV in-form player** — Lorenzo Carissoni — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.95. [^fact-8]: **SUD key absence** — Filipe Bordon out (injury), 74 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **JUV key absence** — Salim Diakité out (injury), 633 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .