# Monza vs Empoli > Serie B · Kickoff Fri 8 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/663) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Monza 2–2 Empoli ## Model verdict - **Monza win:** 81% - **Draw:** 11% - **Empoli win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy Elo gap and home model edge set the tone ## The stage Kickoff is set for Fri 8 May 2026, 18:30 UTC in Serie B[^fact-1]. The fixture is straightforward on the calendar: a clear-tier clash rather than a toss-up, with the home side carrying the catalogue of expectations laid out below[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Form charts point the same direction. Monza’s recent 10-match line reads LWWWD, a 5-3-2 record and 1.80 points per game; the club is averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match in that span[^fact-4]. Empoli’s sequence is WLDLL, a 2-3-5 record and 0.90 points per game; the visitors have been scoring 1.20 and conceding 1.50 on average over their last ten[^fact-5]. The model applies a substantial Elo advantage to Monza — an adjusted differential of +294 points with home advantage factored in[^fact-3] — and translates that into a dominant probability split: Home 81% / Draw 11% / Away 8%[^fact-2]. All indicators therefore place momentum and structural strength on the home side’s shoulders[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Monza’s in-form figure is Matteo Pessina: two goals and no assists in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.31[^fact-6]. His output has contributed to the team-level attacking numbers cited above[^fact-4][^fact-6]. On Empoli’s side the most consistent performer in recent weeks has been Matteo Lovato — one goal, zero assists and an average rating of 7.00 across his last five appearances[^fact-7]. The absences strip clarity from both midblocks: Monza will be without Pedro Obiang through suspension after 552 minutes in the recent run[^fact-8], while Empoli miss Federico Brancolini through injury[^fact-9]. Those two absences are the heaviest availability notes for the tie and will shape selection and balance more than minor rotation would[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s forecast is sharply tilted: 81% for the home win, 11% for a draw and 8% for an away victory[^fact-2]. That projection is anchored to the 294-point Elo gap after home advantage[^fact-3] and the recent-trend divergences in points-per-game and goal rates — 1.80 PPG and 1.80/1.00 goal numbers for Monza versus 0.90 PPG and 1.20/1.50 for Empoli[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Markets were analysed across three markets and compared against the model’s outputs; across those three markets the model identifies measurable edges in favour of the home side[^fact-10][^fact-2]. Those are the concrete touchpoints: a big Elo gulf[^fact-3], steadier form and better goal balance for Monza[^fact-4], and model probabilities that far outstrip the chance of an away upset[^fact-2][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is unequivocal: Monza is the clear favourite at kick-off, backed by the +294 Elo cushion, superior recent form metrics and an 81% model probability for the home win[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-2]. Markets were tested across three markets against that view and the model retains edges in its top comparisons[^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 8 May 2026, 18:30 UTC — Serie B [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 81% / Draw 11% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 70 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — MON vs EMP — Elo differential +294 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **MON recent form** — LWWWD last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **EMP recent form** — WLDLL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **MON in-form player** — Matteo Pessina — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.31. [^fact-7]: **EMP in-form player** — Matteo Lovato — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.00. [^fact-8]: **MON key absence** — Pedro Obiang out (suspension), 552 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **EMP key absence** — Federico Brancolini out (injury). [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .