# Frosinone vs Mantova > Serie B · Kickoff Fri 8 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/664) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Frosinone 5–0 Mantova ## Model verdict - **Frosinone win:** 85% - **Draw:** 9% - **Mantova win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Domination expected as one side carries overwhelming statistical edge ## The stage This Friday’s Serie B fixture kicks off at 18:30 UTC on 8 May 2026; the game is a late-week slot that typically compresses recovery windows and spotlights squad depth[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Formlines paint a clear asymmetry. The home side have the darker run: in their last 10 matches they register WWWDW, a 7-3-0 record, collecting 2.40 points per game while scoring 2.10 and conceding 0.80 on average[^fact-4]. The visitors have also been strong — WWLWW, 6-1-3 in ten with 1.90 points per game, 1.80 goals for and 1.00 conceded[^fact-5] — but the model and rating systems place the home side well ahead: an Elo differential of +267 points (home advantage applied) and a model that assigns the home outcome 85% probability, with a 76-percentage-point gap back to the runner-up outcome[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Two players stand out for recent output. Giacomo Calò has registered 2 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.63 across that run[^fact-6]. Simone Trimboli is the visitors’ in-form creator, with 1 goal and 3 assists in his last four appearances and an average rating of 7.79[^fact-7]. Availability shapes selection too. The home side will be without Sergio Kalaj through injury[^fact-8]. The visitors are missing Andrea Meroni (injury), who had 270 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-9]. Those absences reduce rotation options on each side and matter most where depth is already being tested late in the season[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s verdict is emphatic: Home 85% / Draw 9% / Away 6%, a distribution that underlines a very strong home expectation and a sizeable confidence gap to the next outcome[^fact-2]. That assessment sits on the back of a 267-point Elo edge after accounting for home advantage[^fact-3] and the home side’s superior per-game output over the recent stretch (2.10 scored, 0.80 conceded)[^fact-4]. Markets were analysed across three discrete markets in forming that comparison[^fact-10]. Given those inputs the clearest model-market edge is directional: the model concentrates probability overwhelmingly on the home result, a placement supported by both the Elo edge and the home-side’s recent underlying numbers[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. Secondary considerations are the presence of current form players — Calò’s direct goal contributions and Trimboli’s creative sequence — and the absences that trim rotation options for both sides[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward a home win, driven by a +267 Elo advantage, compact defensive numbers and higher goal output across the recent run, with confidence materially above the next outcomes[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-2]. Markets were checked across three markets as a reference point for that gap[^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 8 May 2026, 18:30 UTC — Serie B [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 85% / Draw 9% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 76 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FRO vs MAN — Elo differential +267 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FRO recent form** — WWWDW last 10: 7-3-0 (W-D-L), 2.40 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **MAN recent form** — WWLWW last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **FRO in-form player** — Giacomo Calò — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.63. [^fact-7]: **MAN in-form player** — Simone Trimboli — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.79. [^fact-8]: **FRO key absence** — Sergio Kalaj out (injury). [^fact-9]: **MAN key absence** — Andrea Meroni out (injury), 270 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .