# Levante vs Osasuna > La Liga · Kickoff Fri 8 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/669) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Levante 3–2 Osasuna ## Model verdict - **Levante win:** 19% - **Draw:** 38% - **Osasuna win:** 43% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans to the travellers despite home Elo edge ## The stage This Friday’s La Liga fixture kicks off at 19:00 UTC, a late-evening match that lands on 8 May 2026.[^fact-1] The result will be decided at the host ground, where Levante carry a slight Elo advantage once home advantage is applied.[^fact-3] ## Form & momentum Recent sequences suggest neither side is running away with momentum. Levante’s last 10 results read LDWWL and are summarized as 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in that span, yielding 1.50 points per game while scoring 1.20 and conceding 1.40 per match.[^fact-4] Osasuna’s last 10 form is LWLDD — 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses — with 1.20 points per game and an identical goal profile of 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded per match.[^fact-5] On paper the Elo edge sits with the home side, but the probabilistic model assigns the higher single outcome probability to the away side: Levante 19% / Draw 38% / Osasuna 43%, with the model flagging low confidence (a 5 percentage-point gap to the runner-up).[^fact-2] That combination — modest home Elo advantage and a model tilt to the travellers combined with low confidence — frames this as a close match where small events are decisive.[^fact-3][^fact-2] ## Personnel Levante’s most notable recent contributor in the data is Carlos Espí, who has 2 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances and averages a match rating of 6.93 in that span.[^fact-6] Osasuna’s comparable in-form figure is Ante Budimir, who also has 2 goals and 0 assists across his last five, with an average rating of 6.43.[^fact-7] The clearest personnel deficit on paper is Levante’s absence of Iván Romero due to injury; Romero logged 561 minutes in the recent run before being ruled out.[^fact-8] Those datapoints point to a forward-line rebalancing for Levante in particular: Espí is the standout attacking data point available, while Osasuna retain Budimir’s output.[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8] ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared against the model before framing edges for bettors and traders.[^fact-9] - The model probabilities themselves are the primary reference: Home 19%, Draw 38%, Away 43%.[^fact-2] - With an Elo tilt to Levante after home advantage is applied, the model’s higher away probability is the central divergence to probe; the market pricing that divergence across the three analysed markets is where the model identifies its top edges.[^fact-3][^fact-9] - The model also flags low confidence — a 5 percentage-point margin to the nearest outcome — which suggests caution sizing any exposure to a single outcome and points toward markets that pay for nuance (draws or both-teams-to-score style outcomes) rather than binary one-sided stakes.[^fact-2][^fact-9] Because only three markets were evaluated, the cleanest takeaway is the model’s straight probability set (Home 19% / Draw 38% / Away 43%) as the benchmark against quoted market prices for those same outcomes.[^fact-2][^fact-9] ## Verdict The model leans to Osasuna at 43% while explicitly assigning low confidence to that lean; Levante carry the home Elo edge once advantage is applied but are down a regular minutes-earner in Iván Romero.[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-8] This shapes the match as finely balanced: the model’s single highest-probability outcome is an away win, the most likely single result is still within a narrow band and the safest posture from the data is to respect the draw’s material probability rather than treat the fixture as one-sided.[^fact-2][^fact-3] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 8 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — La Liga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 19% / Draw 38% / Away 43% (source: model; confidence low, 5 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LVT vs OSA — Elo differential +41 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LVT recent form** — LDWWL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **OSA recent form** — LWLDD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **LVT in-form player** — Carlos Espí — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.93. [^fact-7]: **OSA in-form player** — Ante Budimir — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.43. [^fact-8]: **LVT key absence** — Iván Romero out (injury), 561 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .