# Liverpool vs Chelsea > Premier League · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 11:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/673) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea ## Model verdict - **Liverpool win:** 63% - **Draw:** 22% - **Chelsea win:** 15% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home advantage and injuries tilt the balance decisively ## The stage Saturday’s 11:30 UTC kickoff is a Premier League fixture with clear weight for both sides, scheduled for Sat 9 May 2026, 11:30 UTC — Premier League[^fact-1]. The model gives a strong lean to the hosts, rating Home 63% / Draw 22% / Away 15% in its match verdict[^fact-2]. That probabilistic split arrives with a clear Elo gap: Liverpool hold an Elo differential of +171 points over Chelsea with home advantage applied[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Liverpool’s recent 10-match summary reads LWWWL, a 5-1-4 W-D-L split that equates to 1.60 points per game and 2.00 goals scored with 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Chelsea’s last ten look less convincing at LWLLL, a 4-0-6 W-D-L split producing 1.20 points per game and an identical 1.70 goals for and against per match[^fact-5]. The combination of a larger Elo cushion and the superior recent points rate is why the model’s confidence gap is wide: it assigns the home outcome a probability substantially ahead of the nearest alternative, with a 41 percentage-point margin to the runner-up in model confidence[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Liverpool’s in-form contributor highlighted by data is Dominik Szoboszlai, who has produced 1 goal and 2 assists across his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.22 in that span[^fact-7]. Chelsea’s most notable recent performer in the supplied facts is Marc Cucurella, with 0 goals, 1 assist and an average rating of 6.81 over his last five appearances[^fact-8]. The fixture will be played without Mohamed Salah for Liverpool, a notable absence after he logged 591 minutes in the recent run before sustaining his issue[^fact-9]. Chelsea will also be missing Robert Sánchez, who accounted for 816 minutes in the recent run prior to his unavailability[^fact-10]. Both absences are explicitly called out in the available facts and form part of the match context[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies the clearest market inefficiency on the match-winner line: Home in Match Winner is modelled at 67% while the market price available at 1xbet implies a lower probability, quoted as 1.90; that produces an edge of 14.9 percentage points in favour of the home outcome and is flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. The model-versus-market comparison referenced here is one of the three markets analysed against the model in the supplied review of lines[^fact-11]. The home probability assigned by the model (63%) also sits above the market-backed match-winner price cited by the value signal (model 67% vs market 1.90), underscoring why the home side’s win projection appears to be the single most actionable discrepancy in the market according to these facts[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-11]. The Elo differential — Liverpool +171 points with home advantage applied — provides an independent structural justification for expecting the hosts to control expected outcomes here[^fact-3]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is clear: home victory, supported by a 63% model probability and an even stronger 67% model projection on the match-winner signal versus a market price that implies less value[^fact-2][^fact-6]. That lean rests on Liverpool’s superior recent points rate and goals-scored profile, the substantive Elo edge, and the market discrepancy flagged in the match-winner line[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-6]. Absences for both sides — Mohamed Salah for Liverpool and Robert Sánchez for Chelsea — are material to how each team will be constructed on the day and are baked into the model’s output as presented[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 11:30 UTC — Premier League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 63% / Draw 22% / Away 15% (source: model; confidence high, 41 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LIV vs CHE — Elo differential +171 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LIV recent form** — LWWWL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **CHE recent form** — LWLLL last 10: 4-0-6 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 67% vs market price 1.90 at 1xbet, edge 14.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **LIV in-form player** — Dominik Szoboszlai — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.22. [^fact-8]: **CHE in-form player** — Marc Cucurella — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.81. [^fact-9]: **LIV key absence** — Mohamed Salah out (injury), 591 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **CHE key absence** — Robert Sánchez out (injury), 816 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .