# Elche vs Deportivo Alavés > La Liga · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/674) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Elche 1–1 Deportivo Alavés ## Model verdict - **Elche win:** 25% - **Draw:** 48% - **Deportivo Alavés win:** 28% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Stalemate priced up as model backs the draw edge ## The stage This is a La Liga fixture kicking off on Sat 9 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC, with home advantage already applied to underlying ratings. [^fact-1][^fact-3] ## Form & momentum Elche arrive with a last-10 sequence of LWWWL and a record shown as 4-1-5 (W‑D‑L) with 1.30 points per game, averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-4] Deportivo Alavés's recent sequence reads LWLDD and a 2-4-4 split (W‑D‑L), with 1.00 points per game, averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5] The model still gives Elche an Elo edge once home advantage is accounted for — a differential of +94 points in ELC's favour. [^fact-3] On balance of form and Elo, Elche show the narrow structural advantage, but the goal returns and defensive records suggest a tight game rather than a runaway. [^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5] ## Personnel Elche's in-form profile is represented by André Silva, who has scored 3 goals with no assists in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.06. [^fact-7] Alavés counter with Toni Martínez, who has 4 goals and no assists across his last five appearances and a higher average rating of 7.76. [^fact-8] Availability will matter: Elche will be missing Albert Niculaesei through injury. [^fact-9] Alavés will be missing Carlos Protesoni through injury; the data notes 38 minutes in a recent run for that player. [^fact-10] Those absences are the standout personnel changes supplied by the dataset and therefore the most important to consider for selection and match plan. [^fact-9][^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value The model's three-way probabilities are Home 25%, Draw 48% and Away 28%, with the model's top selection separated from the runner-up by a clear confidence margin. [^fact-2] This translates into a specific market inefficiency: the Draw in Match Winner is flagged as Value pick #1, with a model probability of 49% versus a Betfair Exchange market price of 3.40, giving an edge of 19.5 percentage points to the model. [^fact-6] Three markets were compared against the model to produce these edges. [^fact-11] The combination of an almost even structural picture on goals conceded and scored, close recent form metrics and a sizable draw probability from the model supports why the draw stands out as the single largest edge. [^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-2][^fact-6] ## Verdict The model leans to the draw as the most likely outcome (48% model probability and the model's top pick), with Elche carrying a modest Elo advantage but not enough to swing match probabilities away from parity. [^fact-2][^fact-3] André Silva and Toni Martínez are the most influential attacking indicators in recent form, while the listed injuries to Albert Niculaesei and Carlos Protesoni are the clearest absences to factor in. [^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10] On balance, the analytics picture is of a tight midweek La Liga contest where the draw is the model's clearest edge versus market pricing. [^fact-2][^fact-6] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — La Liga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 25% / Draw 48% / Away 28% (source: model; confidence high, 20 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ELC vs ALA — Elo differential +94 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ELC recent form** — LWWWL last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ALA recent form** — LWLDD last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 2.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 49% vs market price 3.40 at Betfair Exchange, edge 19.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **ELC in-form player** — André Silva — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.06. [^fact-8]: **ALA in-form player** — Toni Martínez — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.76. [^fact-9]: **ELC key absence** — Albert Niculaesei out (injury). [^fact-10]: **ALA key absence** — Carlos Protesoni out (injury), 38 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .