# Ceuta vs Castellón > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/675) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Ceuta 1–1 Castellón ## Model verdict - **Ceuta win:** 40% - **Draw:** 32% - **Castellón win:** 28% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge meets in-form striker — model sides with Ceuta ## The stage This fixture kicks off Sat 9 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC as part of La Liga 2[^fact-1]. The timing and competition context make this a late-season league fixture where points retention and momentum matter; the supplied facts do not list the venue capacity or specific standings beyond the match itself[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences point to contrasting trajectories. Ceuta have managed WDDDL over their last 10, translating to a 2-4-4 record (W-D-L) and 1.00 points per game, with an attacking return of 1.00 goals scored and a defensive return of 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Castellón arrive with LWWDW in their last 10, a 4-3-3 record and 1.50 points per game, scoring 1.90 and also conceding 1.90 per match[^fact-5]. Those raw sequences show Castellón edging the form table on points and recent wins, but the model still awards Ceuta the narrow competitive advantage once home advantage is applied: an Elo differential of +12 in favour of the hosts[^fact-3]. The probabilistic output from the model mirrors that closeness — Home 40% / Draw 32% / Away 28% — a mid-confidence projection with an 8 percentage-point gap to the runner-up probability[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Two players stand out from the supplied data. For Ceuta, Konrad de la Fuente has scored 2 goals with no assists across his last five appearances and holds an average rating of 6.76 over that span[^fact-7]. On Castellón’s side, Álex Calatrava brings a sharper recent output: 5 goals and 1 assist in his last five, with an average rating of 8.06[^fact-8]. Those numbers frame the attacking threat on both sides using only the provided metrics. No information about injuries, suspensions or other absences is included in the supplied facts, so availability cannot be evaluated here beyond the in-form player snapshots given[^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were compared against the model across 3 markets according to the supplied analysis[^fact-9]. The clearest quantified market edge in the facts is the Home Match Winner selection: the model prices Home at 42% while the Betfair Exchange market shows odds implying a 19.6% probability (market price 5.10), yielding an edge of 21.9 percentage points and flagged with high confidence in the supplied note[^fact-6]. That single-statement edge encapsulates the main market disagreement: the model sees a materially higher likelihood of a Ceuta victory than the exchange price implies, even as the model’s own projection is a narrow 40% for Home[^fact-2][^fact-6]. The presence of three markets analysed is noted, but no further market prices or edges are supplied beyond the Home Match Winner instance[^fact-9][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side but projects a tight game: Home 40%, Draw 32%, Away 28% with an Elo tilt of +12 for Ceuta after applying home advantage[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Castellón carry marginally better recent form and a hotter scorer in Álex Calatrava, yet the model’s probabilities and the single explicit market comparison show the clearest disagreement on a Ceuta win — the model’s Home probability exceeds the Betfair-implied price by 21.9 percentage points in the supplied data[^fact-5][^fact-8][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 40% / Draw 32% / Away 28% (source: model; confidence mid, 8 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Ceuta vs Castellón — Elo differential +12 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Ceuta recent form** — WDDDL last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Castellón recent form** — LWWDW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 42% vs market price 5.10 at Betfair Exchange, edge 21.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Ceuta in-form player** — Konrad de la Fuente — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.76. [^fact-8]: **Castellón in-form player** — Álex Calatrava — 5 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.06. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .