# Widzew Lodz vs Lechia Gdańsk > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 12:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/677) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Widzew Lodz 3–1 Lechia Gdańsk ## Model verdict - **Widzew Lodz win:** 27% - **Draw:** 51% - **Lechia Gdańsk win:** 22% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model Favors Draw; Home Slight Elo Edge and Absences ## The stage This mid-May Ekstraklasa fixture kicks off Sat 9 May 2026 at 12:45 UTC, a midday slot that concentrates attention on immediate competitive consequences for both clubs[^fact-1]. The model assigns the most likely single outcome as a draw, forming the central narrative for the contest[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences point to two teams travelling in different emotional directions. Widzew Lodz have a last-10 line of LWLWD, reflected in a 3-4-3 W-D-L split and an average of 1.30 points per game; their attacking and defensive outputs in that span are 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Lechia Gdańsk’s last 10 reads LLDLW, a 3-2-5 W-D-L distribution with 1.10 points per game and higher volatility in goals: 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Elo paints the home side as marginally stronger once venue adjustment is applied: Widzew carry a +95 Elo-point edge over Lechia after home advantage is factored into the rating differential[^fact-3]. The model’s forecast contrasts with that Elo edge by still putting the draw on top, signalling that either match-specific factors or market prices tilt the probabilistic balance toward parity[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Widzew’s most in-form attacking influence is Sebastian Bergier, who has produced 1 goal and 2 assists across his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.09 in that run[^fact-7]. That recent output is a tangible source of creativity for the hosts. Lechia’s short-term spark is Tomas Bobcek: 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five outings, with an average rating of 7.26 over the same window[^fact-8]. Bobcek’s numbers underline Lechia’s capacity to deliver decisive attacking moments despite their uneven defensive record[^fact-5]. Both sides will be missing established figures through injury. Widzew must cope without Lukas Lerager, who logged 513 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-9]. Lechia are without Alvis Jaunzems due to injury as well[^fact-10]. Those absences remove experienced minutes from the middle of both teams and may explain some of the model’s reluctance to separate the two sides radically[^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probabilities are Home 27% / Draw 51% / Away 22%, a wide gap between the draw and the nearest runner-up that the model flags with high confidence[^fact-2]. Market comparison across three markets was performed against the model’s projections[^fact-11]. The clearest specific edge is on the draw in Match Winner: the model places probability at 49%, while the Betfair Exchange market shows 3.60 available, producing an edge of 20.8 percentage points versus the market—an outcome the model rates with high confidence[^fact-6]. That single-market mismatch is the dominant pricing inefficiency identified: despite an Elo advantage for the hosts, the model’s internal balance of attack, defence and availability leads to near-half probability on stalemate, and market odds for the draw have not fully reflected that skew[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6]. The value call is therefore not on goalscorers or sides but on the event-level probability that neither team can force a winning margin, a conclusion supported by both teams’ recent low scoring and modest points-per-game figures[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans sharply to the draw (51%), with home victory trailing at 27% and away at 22%; the largest market-model discrepancy is the draw priced at 3.60 on Betfair, creating a 20.8 pp edge in the model’s view[^fact-2][^fact-6]. Expect a tight, possession-fought game shaped by the absences of Lukas Lerager and Alvis Jaunzems and by the influence of in-form forwards Sebastian Bergier and Tomas Bobcek[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 12:45 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 27% / Draw 51% / Away 22% (source: model; confidence high, 24 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Widzew Lodz vs LGD — Elo differential +95 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Widzew Lodz recent form** — LWLWD last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 0.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LGD recent form** — LLDLW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 49% vs market price 3.60 at Betfair Exchange, edge 20.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Widzew Lodz in-form player** — Sebastian Bergier — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.09. [^fact-8]: **LGD in-form player** — Tomas Bobcek — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.26. [^fact-9]: **Widzew Lodz key absence** — Lukas Lerager out (injury), 513 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **LGD key absence** — Alvis Jaunzems out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .