# Västerås SK vs GAIS > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/679) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Västerås SK 0–1 GAIS ## Model verdict - **Västerås SK win:** 11% - **Draw:** 28% - **GAIS win:** 61% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans strongly to the travelling side despite tight domestic context ## The stage Kickoff for this Allsvenskan fixture is Sat 9 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC. [^fact-1] This game presents a clear away/neutral-market narrative from the model before a ball is kicked. [^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Recent trajectories point to a marginally healthier GAIS: their last 10 matches read WDDLL (three wins, three draws, four losses) and they are averaging 1.20 points per game with 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5] Västerås SK arrive with a W D L D L sequence in the same window recorded as LWDLD (two wins, four draws, four losses), producing 1.00 point per game and a 1.30/1.90 goals for/against profile. [^fact-4] On Elo terms the visitor holds the edge — the differential is minus 64 for the home side once home advantage is applied, an objective indicator that GAIS are rated notably higher. [^fact-3] Those numbers align with the model’s match-probability spread: it gives the away side a 61% chance, a draw 28%, and the home team only 11% — a 33 percentage-point gap to the runner-up probability, signalling high model confidence. [^fact-2] ## Personnel Västerås SK’s clearest attacking form comes through Mikkel Ladefoged, who has five goals and no assists in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.69 across those games. [^fact-7] GAIS can point to William Milovanovic as a recent creative influence: one goal and three assists in his last four outings with an average rating of 7.09. [^fact-8] A tangible blow to GAIS is the confirmed absence of Gustav Lundgren through injury; he accumulated 357 minutes in the recent run prior to missing the match. [^fact-9] ## Where the model sees value The model’s top market divergence is the Away Match Winner line: model 61% versus a market price of 2.27 at 22Bet, which equates to an edge of 17.0 percentage points and is flagged with high confidence. [^fact-6] Markets compared against the model total three in number, offering a compact sample of where model and market disagree. [^fact-10] Those gaps are consistent with the Elo and form signals above: a visitor-rated side on Elo advantage, modestly superior recent points per game, and a model that quantifies that superiority into a dominant away probability. [^fact-3] [^fact-5] [^fact-2] ## Verdict The model’s lean is clear: an away victory is the primary outcome by a substantial margin — Away 61%, Draw 28%, Home 11% — with the largest market edge sitting on the Away Match Winner price 2.27 at 22Bet. [^fact-2] [^fact-6] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 11% / Draw 28% / Away 61% (source: model; confidence high, 33 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Västerås SK vs GAIS — Elo differential -64 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Västerås SK recent form** — LWDLD last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GAIS recent form** — WDDLL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 61% vs market price 2.27 at 22Bet, edge 17.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Västerås SK in-form player** — Mikkel Ladefoged — 5 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.69. [^fact-8]: **GAIS in-form player** — William Milovanovic — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.09. [^fact-9]: **GAIS key absence** — Gustav Lundgren out (injury), 357 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .