# Degerfors vs Mjällby > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/680) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Degerfors 1–4 Mjällby ## Model verdict - **Degerfors win:** 7% - **Draw:** 15% - **Mjällby win:** 79% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy model tilt points to a clear road favourite for Saturday ## The stage This Allsvenskan fixture kicks off Sat 9 May 2026, 13:00 UTC and pits Degerfors against Mjällby at Degerfors' ground[^fact-1][^fact-1]. The calendar slot and home surface are standard league conditions; the supplied facts set the temporal and venue context but do not include additional competition caveats[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Degerfors arrive with a last-10 sequence of DDWLW, reported as 4-3-3 (W-D-L) and averaging 1.50 points per game, 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Mjällby are noticeably hotter on the numbers: their last-10 reads WWDWL, summarised as 7-1-2 (W-D-L), with 2.20 points per game, 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo comparison after applying home advantage gives Mjällby a sizable edge of +205 points relative to Degerfors[^fact-3]. The predictive model reflects that gap emphatically: it rates Degerfors win probability at 7%, draw at 15% and an away victory for Mjällby at 79% — a margin described as high-confidence with a 64 percentage-point lead over the runner-up[^fact-2]. Those three numbers drive the clear framing: Degerfors' recent form is modest and middling at home[^fact-4], while Mjällby's recent returns and defensive solidity point to genuine momentum[^fact-5]. The Elo differential and model probability align on a strong away favourite[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Degerfors' most notable in-form contributor listed in the supplied facts is Daniel Sundgren: 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.15[^fact-7]. Mjällby's main form asset is Jacob Bergström, who has 4 goals in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.58[^fact-8]. Those two names are the only individual player performance data provided; no other player-level availability or absence information is supplied in the structured facts, so squad absences cannot be assessed here[^fact-7][^fact-8]. Given the statistical profile, Degerfors' offensive contributions look more limited on recent metrics (1.30 goals per match) versus Mjällby's higher output (1.80 goals per match), while Mjällby also concede less on average (0.80) than Degerfors (1.10), which frames personnel impact through collective output rather than missing individuals[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value The model's preferred outcome is an away win for Mjällby at 79% probability[^fact-2]. Compared with market pricing on Betfair Exchange (2.14 for an away match-winner), the model identifies a 31.9 percentage-point edge to the away selection — flagged as high confidence in the supplied facts[^fact-6]. That edge is the clearest market discrepancy among the analysed markets: three markets were compared against the model in total[^fact-9]. Put simply: the model probability (79%) versus the market-implied chance from the listed exchange price produces the largest single mismatch recorded in the facts, and the market comparison set comprised three distinct markets evaluated against the model[^fact-6][^fact-9]. The Elo gap and form metrics underpin why the model is so bullish on an away victory (Elo −205 in Degerfors' favour after home advantage was applied — i.e., Mjällby substantially stronger on Elo)[^fact-3]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the away side: Mjällby are the clear favourites on probability (79%) and Elo support, while Degerfors' metrics point to a weaker home profile and lower attacking output[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. The most notable market mismatch in the supplied facts is the model's 79% away probability against a 2.14 Betfair price (edge 31.9 pp), which the model marks with high confidence[^fact-6][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 7% / Draw 15% / Away 79% (source: model; confidence high, 64 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Degerfors vs Mjällby — Elo differential -205 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Degerfors recent form** — DDWLW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Mjällby recent form** — WWDWL last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 79% vs market price 2.14 at Betfair Exchange, edge 31.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Degerfors in-form player** — Daniel Sundgren — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.15. [^fact-8]: **Mjällby in-form player** — Jacob Bergström — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.58. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .