# IFK Göteborg vs Hammarby > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/681) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** IFK Göteborg 0–1 Hammarby ## Model verdict - **IFK Göteborg win:** 34% - **Draw:** 38% - **Hammarby win:** 28% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Underdog home shock or controlled away superiority — model splits the road ## The stage This is an Allsvenskan midday kick-off on Sat 9 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC, with IFK Göteborg hosting Hammarby; the fixture sits squarely in the domestic schedule and presents a clear home-vs-away framing in the table race[^fact-1]. The model’s probabilities are unusually close: home 34%, draw 38%, away 28% — a three-way outlook that flags uncertainty rather than a clear favorite[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results paint two very different trajectories. Göteborg’s last 10 matches read LDDDL (2 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses), producing 1.00 point per game, 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Hammarby, by contrast, come in on WDDWL over their last 10 (6-3-1), averaging 2.10 points per game, 2.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match — numbers that signal a much more consistent attacking and defensive output[^fact-5]. That divergence shows up in Elo terms as well: with home advantage applied the Elo differential is -99 in Göteborg’s matchup against Hammarby, indicating a sizeable quality edge to the visitors on historical strength measures[^fact-3]. Taken together, form and Elo suggest Hammarby are the hotter side, but the model’s probability spread still leaves room for an upset given the sizable draw probability[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Göteborg’s most influential recent performer is Tobias Heintz: two goals in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.57, marking him as the side’s clearest in-form outlet[^fact-8]. The team will be without Arbnor Mucolli through injury, a named absence that removes a known option from the host side[^fact-10]. Hammarby’s top form player is Victor Lind, who has contributed two goals and three assists in his last five games and carries an average match rating of 7.65, underpinning the visitors’ healthy attacking numbers[^fact-9]. Those statistical snapshots align with the broader form indicators: Göteborg’s attacking output is thin, Hammarby’s is rich[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model was compared against three markets in total[^fact-11], and the clearest edges sit in two match-winner positions. - Home win (match winner): model probability 40% vs Betfair Exchange market price 5.10, producing an edge of 20.2 percentage points — flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. - Draw (match winner): model probability 38% vs Betfair Exchange market price 4.20, producing an edge of 14.3 percentage points — also high confidence[^fact-7]. Both value lines are notable because they contradict the broader season form and Elo signals. The model’s Home 40% figure is materially higher than its final published Home probability of 34% (the 34% figure is the model’s match verdict after other inputs were applied), which explains the large implied edge noted against the exchange price[^fact-6][^fact-2]. The draw proposition similarly benefits from a tight model probability relative to the market price, leaving the draw as the single most likely outcome in the model’s headline breakdown[^fact-7][^fact-2]. These edges are presented with high confidence by the model for the two markets specified[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans to a draw as the single likeliest result while still assigning respectable chances to both sides — home 34%, draw 38%, away 28% — reflecting the tension between Hammarby’s superior form and Elo and the model’s own allowances for home dynamics and market inefficiencies[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. Key match-up notes: Göteborg’s attacking burden rests heavier on Tobias Heintz amid the absence of Arbnor Mucolli[^fact-8][^fact-10], while Hammarby carry momentum through Victor Lind’s recent end product[^fact-9]. The markets analysed (three in total) expose two standout value opportunities on Home and Draw as calculated by the model against Betfair prices[^fact-11][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 34% / Draw 38% / Away 28% (source: model; confidence low, 4 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — GOT vs HAM — Elo differential -99 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **GOT recent form** — LDDDL last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HAM recent form** — WDDWL last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 40% vs market price 5.10 at Betfair Exchange, edge 20.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 38% vs market price 4.20 at Betfair Exchange, edge 14.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **GOT in-form player** — Tobias Heintz — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.57. [^fact-9]: **HAM in-form player** — Victor Lind — 2 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.65. [^fact-10]: **GOT key absence** — Arbnor Mucolli out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .