# FC Augsburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/682) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** FC Augsburg 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach ## Model verdict - **FC Augsburg win:** 54% - **Draw:** 28% - **Borussia Mönchengladbach win:** 18% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Augsburg slight favourites as draw price looks the clearest edge ## The stage This Bundesliga fixture kicks off on Sat 9 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC, a late‑season meeting that will be decided on the day rather than in the standings summary here[^fact-1]. The model assigns a clear home tilt: Home 54% / Draw 28% / Away 18%, with high confidence and a 26 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up outcome[^fact-2]. That projection is reinforced by an applied Elo advantage of +121 points for the hosts[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines are tight but tell a subtle story. Augsburg’s last 10 reads WDWDD — four wins, three draws and three defeats — yielding 1.50 points per game and an identical 1.70 goals scored and conceded per match, which suggests compact but porous performances[^fact-4]. Mönchengladbach’s run is WDDLD — three wins, four draws and three defeats — good for 1.30 points per game, averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded, a slightly lower output and marginally better defensive record on paper[^fact-5]. Couple that with the Elo gap in the model and the numbers tilt towards the hosts: Augsburg carries the +121 Elo edge after home advantage was applied[^fact-3]. Momentum thus reads as a small home advantage amplified by model confidence rather than a runaway form discrepancy[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Augsburg’s most in‑form attacking contributor in recent appearances is Anton Kade — three goals in his last five outings with an average rating of 7.31[^fact-8]. That scoring spike is meaningful in a side averaging 1.70 goals per match over the sample[^fact-4]. Mönchengladbach’s standout in recent games is Rocco Reitz, who brings a high average rating of 7.38 but has contributed a single assist and no goals in his last five appearances[^fact-9]. Availability will influence selection dynamics. Augsburg will be without Mads Pedersen due to injury[^fact-10]. Mönchengladbach face the enforced absence of central figure Nico Elvedi through suspension; Elvedi has accumulated 897 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a significant amount of playing time from the defence[^fact-11]. These are the heaviest absences for each side and material to how both coaches will pick their backlines and set‑piece plans[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were analysed against the model[^fact-12]. The clearest statistical mismatch sits with the draw in Match Winner: the model prices the draw at 37% while the Betfair Exchange market offers 3.95, producing an edge of 11.3 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. That gap is substantial relative to the market and to the model’s own certainty bands[^fact-2][^fact-6]. The model also finds value on the home win: model probability 54% versus Betfair market price 2.06, an edge of 5.3 percentage points with mid confidence[^fact-7]. This reflects the combined impact of the Elo advantage and home weighting applied in the projection[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Both value signals arise from the same structural picture: a modestly favoured home side, a market that underprices the stalemate and a game environment where defensive averages and recent draws make stalemate plausible[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. The two highlighted market comparisons are the specific ones called out by the model among the three markets analysed[^fact-12][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side but also registers a sizable pricing inefficiency on the draw: the projection favours Augsburg at 54% while simultaneously giving the draw a non‑trivial 28% baseline probability, producing the largest market edge on the draw and a secondary edge on the home win[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Personnel absences — Pedersen for Augsburg and suspended Elvedi for Mönchengladbach — and the narrow recent goal averages underpin a compact game where a settled draw is plausibly mispriced relative to the model’s view[^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 54% / Draw 28% / Away 18% (source: model; confidence high, 26 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FCA vs BMG — Elo differential +121 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FCA recent form** — WDWDD last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BMG recent form** — WDDLD last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 37% vs market price 3.95 at Betfair Exchange, edge 11.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 54% vs market price 2.06 at Betfair Exchange, edge 5.3 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **FCA in-form player** — Anton Kade — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.31. [^fact-9]: **BMG in-form player** — Rocco Reitz — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.38. [^fact-10]: **FCA key absence** — Mads Pedersen out (injury). [^fact-11]: **BMG key absence** — Nico Elvedi out (suspension), 897 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .