# VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen > Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/685) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen ## Model verdict - **VfB Stuttgart win:** 36% - **Draw:** 27% - **Bayer 04 Leverkusen win:** 37% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Thin margins — model splits on a razor-close road edge ## The stage This Bundesliga fixture kicks off on Sat 9 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The game carries routine league significance within a run of late-season fixtures; the model expresses a near-even split between the sides with a narrow away tilt[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Stuttgart’s recent 10-match sequence reads DDLWL (four wins, four draws, two losses) and they average 1.60 points per game over that span; their attack has produced 2.50 goals per match while the defence concedes 1.70[^fact-4]. Leverkusen arrive with a warmer run — WWLWW (five wins, four draws, one loss) and 1.90 points per game, scoring 2.30 and conceding 1.50 on average in the same sample[^fact-5]. The Elo comparison, with home advantage applied, gives Stuttgart a +49-point edge[^fact-3], a reminder that Stuttgart’s rating-based baseline still favours the hosts even as recent results tilt slightly towards Leverkusen[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Stuttgart’s form has been carried in part by Chris Führich, who has three goals and one assist in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.57 across that window[^fact-7]. The notable absence for the hosts is Angelo Stiller, sidelined through injury after 861 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9]. For Leverkusen, Patrik Schick is the hot scorer: seven goals in his last five appearances with a 7.45 average rating[^fact-8]. Leverkusen will also be without Martin Terrier, who has been out injured after 231 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. Those personnel swings are the clearest attacking stories ahead of kickoff[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s match-winner probabilities sit Home 36% / Draw 27% / Away 37% — a three-way split with the away outcome narrowly favourite and model confidence flagged as low, with only a 1 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. Markets were compared across three products against the model[^fact-11]. The clearest quoted edge identified is an away Match Winner selection: the model assigns 36% to the away win while the Betfair Exchange market price sits at 3.00, producing an edge of 3.1 percentage points for the model (noted with low confidence)[^fact-6][^fact-2][^fact-11]. That single edge is the standout discrepancy between model and market in the analysed set of three markets[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans extremely slightly toward the away side while signalling low confidence in that lean — Home 36% / Draw 27% / Away 37%[^fact-2] — creating a contest defined by fine margins between Stuttgart’s Elo-backed home baseline[^fact-3] and Leverkusen’s hotter recent form and sharper goalscoring burst[^fact-5][^fact-8]. The main market divergence is the modest edge on an away Match Winner at 3.00, highlighted across three markets analysed[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 36% / Draw 27% / Away 37% (source: model; confidence low, 1 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — VFB vs B04 — Elo differential +49 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **VFB recent form** — DDLWL last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **B04 recent form** — WWLWW last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 2.30 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 36% vs market price 3.00 at Betfair Exchange, edge 3.1 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **VFB in-form player** — Chris Führich — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.57. [^fact-8]: **B04 in-form player** — Patrik Schick — 7 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.45. [^fact-9]: **VFB key absence** — Angelo Stiller out (injury), 861 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **B04 key absence** — Martin Terrier out (injury), 231 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .