# Fulham vs AFC Bournemouth > Premier League · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/687) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Fulham 0–1 AFC Bournemouth ## Model verdict - **Fulham win:** 27% - **Draw:** 38% - **AFC Bournemouth win:** 34% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw market stands out as the clearest edge on paper ## The stage This Premier League Saturday kick-off arrives at 14:00 UTC on 9 May 2026, a fixture that sits near the season run-in and carries the usual short-term consequences for form and positioning[^fact-1]. The match is treated as a neutral competitive test between two sides separated only slightly in the model’s probabilities[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results paint Bournemouth as the hotter side on current evidence: their last 10 give a sequence of WDWWD, quantified as 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses, delivering 1.80 points per game with 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Fulham’s ten-game line reads LWDLW, recorded as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, producing 1.40 points per game with 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The Elo panel applied for home advantage tilts only slightly in Fulham’s favour by 4 points, a marginal edge rather than a decisive gulf[^fact-3]. Against that backdrop, momentum sits with Bournemouth but the underlying ratings suggest parity. ## Personnel Fulham’s most notable in-form attacking figure referenced is Harry Wilson, who has one goal and no assists across his last five appearances, averaging a 6.99 match rating in that span[^fact-7]. On Bournemouth’s side, Eli Kroupi is the clearest recent contributor with four goals and no assists in his last five outings, carrying an average rating of 7.01 over those matches[^fact-8]. Availability questions alter the texture: Fulham will be without Alex Iwobi due to injury, a player who logged 606 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-9]. Bournemouth also have a named injury absence in Luis Sinisterra[^fact-10]. Those absences are the most significant personnel notes listed in the model’s data set. ## Where the model sees value The model’s raw probabilities are Home 27%, Draw 38% and Away 34% with a stated low confidence and a 4 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. Markets were scanned across three product lines for comparison with the model[^fact-11]. The clearest quantifiable market edge appears on the Draw in Match Winner: the model assigns a 38% probability to the draw while the Betfair Exchange price sits at 3.85, producing an implied mismatch the model quantifies as an 11.6 percentage-point edge and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. That single, explicit edge is the standout discrepancy between model and market across the three markets analysed[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans to the draw as the single most likely outcome, assigning it 38% probability in a tight three-way picture where Bournemouth show better recent form but Fulham carry a minimal Elo home advantage[^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-3]. The market discrepancy on the draw is the primary structural inefficiency identified in the inputs available[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premier League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 27% / Draw 38% / Away 34% (source: model; confidence low, 4 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FUL vs BOU — Elo differential +4 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FUL recent form** — LWDLW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BOU recent form** — WDWWD last 10: 4-6-0 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 38% vs market price 3.85 at Betfair Exchange, edge 11.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **FUL in-form player** — Harry Wilson — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.99. [^fact-8]: **BOU in-form player** — Eli Kroupi — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.01. [^fact-9]: **FUL key absence** — Alex Iwobi out (injury), 606 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **BOU key absence** — Luis Sinisterra  out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .