# Zulte-Waregem vs Dender > Pro League · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/689) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Zulte-Waregem 2–1 Dender ## Model verdict - **Zulte-Waregem win:** 66% - **Draw:** 22% - **Dender win:** 13% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home superiority and Okopu’s form tilt expectations strongly homeward ## The stage This Pro League fixture kicks off Sat 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC, a late-season meeting with league implications implicit in the calendar slot[^fact-1]. The model gives a clear home advantage: a 66% probability for the home side, a 22% probability of a draw and a 13% chance for the away win[^fact-2]. That split carries high internal confidence — the model reports a 44 percentage-point gap to the runner-up — and will shape how both clubs approach risk and control[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum The home side arrives on a superior recent run: five wins and a single draw from a ten-match sample, translating to 1.60 points per game and an attacking output of 1.70 goals while conceding 1.40 per match[^fact-4]. The visitors are on the back foot by comparison, with two wins, two draws and six defeats across ten games, worth 0.80 points per game and a goals-for/against line of 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The quantitative gap is echoed by the Elo differential: the home side holds a +238-point edge after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Those three data points — form, per-match output and Elo — all point to clear momentum for the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Offensively, the home side leans on Joseph Okopu, who has five goals and one assist in his last five appearances while averaging a 7.52 rating over that run[^fact-7]. The away side’s most notable contributor in recent weeks is Malcolm Viltard, with one goal and one assist in his last five appearances and a 7.17 average rating[^fact-8]. The hosts will be without Benoit Nyssen through injury; Nyssen logged 461 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a chunk of recent minutes from the rotation[^fact-9]. The visitors are similarly missing a regular figure: Gauthier Gallon is out injured after contributing 696 minutes in the recent sequence[^fact-10]. These absences are the clearest personnel swings that can be measured from the supplied data[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s primary market edge identified here is on the home match-winner. The model estimates the home win probability at 65% for the specific market comparison, versus a quoted market price of 1.66 at one bookmaker, producing an edge of 5.2 percentage points on that line (mid confidence)[^fact-6]. In total, three markets were analysed against the model for this fixture, with the home winner emerging as the standout value opportunity among them[^fact-11][^fact-6]. The broader model verdict remains consistent with those market signals: a 66% probability for the home win, a 22% draw probability and a 13% away win probability, underlining why the home-side selection shows the clearest margin to market prices[^fact-2]. ## Verdict Statistically, this fixture is skewed toward the home side: superior recent form, a +238 Elo edge with home advantage baked in, a hot attacking performer in Joseph Okopu and a model that places a high-probability mark on the home win while identifying a measurable market edge on that outcome[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-7][^fact-2][^fact-6]. The visitors’ defensive fragility in recent results and the absence of a key player add to the mismatch suggested by the numbers[^fact-5][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Pro League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 66% / Draw 22% / Away 13% (source: model; confidence high, 44 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ZUL vs DEN — Elo differential +238 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ZUL recent form** — WWWWD last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DEN recent form** — WLLLW last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 65% vs market price 1.66 at 22Bet, edge 5.2 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **ZUL in-form player** — Joseph Okopu — 5 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.52. [^fact-8]: **DEN in-form player** — Malcolm Viltard — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.17. [^fact-9]: **ZUL key absence** — Benoit Nyssen out (injury), 461 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **DEN key absence** — Gauthier Gallon out (injury), 696 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .