# St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/691) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** St. Mirren 0–3 Kilmarnock ## Model verdict - **St. Mirren win:** 36% - **Draw:** 45% - **Kilmarnock win:** 19% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw market stands out as the clearest edge ## The stage This Premiership fixture kicks off Sat 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC, a straightforward scheduling detail ahead of the weekend's run of games.[^fact-1] ## Form & momentum Recent form paints two different stories: St. Mirren have managed two wins, no draws and seven defeats in their last ten matches, producing 0.70 points per game with 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded on average per match[^fact-4], while Kilmarnock have four wins, two draws and four defeats over their last ten, averaging 1.40 points per game with 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model applies a modest Elo edge to the home side — St. Mirren sit +29 Elo points once home advantage is factored in[^fact-3] — yet the probabilistic output favours a draw as the single most likely outcome: Home 36%, Draw 45%, Away 19% according to the model's projection (mid confidence, 9 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome).[^fact-2] That combination of a small home Elo advantage and a model tilted towards parity reflects the underlying numbers: Kilmarnock's higher points-per-game and goal production contrasts with St. Mirren's poorer defensive return, but the model still rates a stalemate as the likeliest result given the inputs described above.[^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-2][^fact-3] ## Personnel St. Mirren's most notable in-form contributor is Miguel Freckleton, who has scored once and provided no assists across his last five appearances, with an average match rating of 6.96 over that span.[^fact-7] Kilmarnock's form player is Joe Hugill, who has three goals and one assist in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.15 in that period.[^fact-8] Availability questions matter more than ever: St. Mirren will be without Ryan Mullen due to injury, a player who averaged 58 minutes in his recent run before the absence was recorded[^fact-9], while Kilmarnock are missing Matty Kennedy through injury as well.[^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value The model's probabilistic view and the market lines diverge most sharply on the match-winner market. The model assigns a 45% probability to a draw[^fact-2], while the listed market price at Paddy Power of 3.60 implies a substantially lower market-implied chance; that gap creates a quantified edge of 17.7 percentage points in favour of the draw per the model's comparison, and the model rates that as a high-confidence edge.[^fact-6] The comparison drew on three markets in total relative to the model's outputs.[^fact-11] Those are the hard numbers available: a sizeable model-market discrepancy on stalemate, plus a model that still gives St. Mirren a modest home-Elo cushion versus Kilmarnock's superior recent points return.[^fact-6][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4] ## Verdict The model leans towards parity: the single most likely outcome is a draw at 45%, with St. Mirren at 36% and Kilmarnock at 19% according to the projection (mid confidence, 9 pp gap to the next-most-likely result).[^fact-2] Given the contrast between St. Mirren's defensive frailty and Kilmarnock's better recent point accumulation, plus the absence notes on Ryan Mullen and Matty Kennedy and the in-form trajectories of Miguel Freckleton and Joe Hugill, the clearest quantitative signal from the available inputs is that the market underprices the draw relative to the model's view.[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-6] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 36% / Draw 45% / Away 19% (source: model; confidence mid, 9 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STM vs KIL — Elo differential +29 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STM recent form** — LLLWW last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 0.60 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **KIL recent form** — WLDLW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 45% vs market price 3.60 at Paddy Power, edge 17.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **STM in-form player** — Miguel Freckleton — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.96. [^fact-8]: **KIL in-form player** — Joe Hugill — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.15. [^fact-9]: **STM key absence** — Ryan Mullen out (injury), 58 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **KIL key absence** — Matty Kennedy  out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .