# Dundee vs Livingston > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/692) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Dundee 3–0 Livingston ## Model verdict - **Dundee win:** 79% - **Draw:** 13% - **Livingston win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home-heavy model favourite backed by clear Elo edge ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC in a Premiership fixture that the model treats as heavily skewed to the hosts[^fact-1][^fact-2]. This is not presented as a neutral boiling-point clash; the picture supplied to the model shows a clear single-front contest rather than a knock‑on run of marginal outcomes[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Dundee arrive with a mixed short-term record: their last 10 results read WLDLL and convert to 1.30 points per game, scoring 1.60 and conceding 1.80 goals per match over that sample[^fact-4]. Livingston’s ten-match sequence is DWLDL and yields 0.90 points per game, with 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The quantitative edge on Elo — after applying home advantage — sits at +204 points for the hosts, a material gap on that scale[^fact-3]. The model’s probability split reinforces that gap: Home 79%, Draw 13%, Away 8%, with a high-confidence 66 percentage‑point margin to the runner‑up category[^fact-2]. Taken together, home advantage plus Elo and form metrics point to Dundee carrying the clearer momentum in the numbers[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-2]. ## Personnel The facts single out two players in recent form. For the home side, Simon Murray has 2 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.74 across that sample[^fact-7]. For the visitors, Lewis Smith has 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.38[^fact-8]. The supplied dataset does not include any listed absences or suspension details; the only personnel items provided are these in‑form spotlights[^fact-7][^fact-8]. Any assessment of depth or unavailability must therefore be conditional on information beyond the supplied facts. ## Where the model sees value The model’s output is sharply pro‑home, and that translates into concrete market edges where markets diverge from model probabilities. The clearest single edge identified: Home in Match Winner — the model prices that at 80% versus the Betfair Exchange price implying odds-equivalent of 1.80, producing an edge of 24.3 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Three markets in total were compared against the model in the analysis, supplying the basis for these edges[^fact-9]. The scale of the Elo differential (+204) and the model’s 79% home probability form the backbone of this valuation gap between model and market[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model delivers a decisive lean to the hosts, underpinned by a 79% home probability and a +204 Elo advantage after home adjustment — the most salient signals in the supplied facts[^fact-2][^fact-3]. That lean is reflected in a concrete market edge on the home Match Winner line, where the model’s 80% valuation contrasts with a market price of 1.80 and a 24.3 percentage-point edge marked as high confidence[^fact-6][^fact-9]. Simon Murray and Lewis Smith are the named short-term form drivers in the dataset and should be watched in the match narrative, but the numerical architecture of the forecast remains overwhelmingly pro‑home in the information provided[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 79% / Draw 13% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 66 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — DUD vs LIV — Elo differential +204 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **DUD recent form** — WLDLL last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LIV recent form** — DWLDL last 10: 1-6-3 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 80% vs market price 1.80 at Betfair Exchange, edge 24.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **DUD in-form player** — Simon Murray — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.74. [^fact-8]: **LIV in-form player** — Lewis Smith — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.38. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .