# Aberdeen vs Dundee United > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/693) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Aberdeen 2–0 Dundee United ## Model verdict - **Aberdeen win:** 35% - **Draw:** 52% - **Dundee United win:** 13% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw looks best bet as Aberdeen edge dwindles ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC in the Premiership[^fact-1]. This is a late-season fixture where a compact outcome could have outsized consequences for both sides given the timing within the calendar[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent form charts a clear contrast. Aberdeen’s last 10 read DWWLL, a 2-3-5 split (W-D-L) producing 0.90 points per game, 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Dundee United arrive with LWWLW for their last 10, a 4-3-3 split (W-D-L) yielding 1.50 points per game, 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo line applied with home advantage still shows Aberdeen with an edge of +62 points[^fact-3], but the model’s probability surface favours a stalemate: Home 35% / Draw 52% / Away 13%, with the model reporting high confidence and a 17 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. That combination — a modest Elo advantage for the hosts alongside a model that sharply prefers a draw — is the defining tension going into the match[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Aberdeen’s most notable in-form contributor in recent appearances is Afeez Aremu, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five outings and carries an average rating of 6.91 across those appearances[^fact-7]. The Dons will also be without Tom McIntyre through injury; McIntyre logged 134 minutes in the recent run before being ruled out[^fact-9]. On the Dundee United side Will Ferry stands out: 4 goals and 2 assists in his last five matches with an average rating of 8.15[^fact-8]. United will be without L. Stephenson through injury; Stephenson had 623 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-10]. Those availability notes frame each team’s attacking and defensive bandwidth: Aberdeen lose a recent minutes contributor in McIntyre[^fact-9], while United lose a higher-minute regular in Stephenson[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model strongly favours the draw at 52% while the Betfair Exchange market prices the draw at 3.65 — an implied probability materially lower than the model’s view — creating an edge the model quantifies at 24.8 percentage points and marks as high confidence[^fact-6]. That is the clearest discrepancy between market and model across the markets analysed (3 market(s) compared)[^fact-11][^fact-6]. The wider context is important: despite Aberdeen’s +62 Elo advantage with home weighting[^fact-3], the model still elevates the draw as the single most likely outcome at 52%[^fact-2], implying the market is underweight stalemate risk by nearly a quarter of its own probability distribution in this road-tested comparison[^fact-6][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly to the draw at 52% with high confidence, despite Aberdeen carrying a +62 Elo edge and playing at home; that divergence between raw Elo and the model’s probabilistic output is where the market disconnect appears and is the match’s principal storyline[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Teams’ recent form and key absences — Afeez Aremu in form for Aberdeen[^fact-7], Will Ferry firing for Dundee United[^fact-8], plus absences of Tom McIntyre and L. Stephenson[^fact-9][^fact-10] — help explain the model’s conservative tilt toward a deadlock, and they underline why the draw line is the most pronounced market discrepancy from the model across the three markets analysed[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 35% / Draw 52% / Away 13% (source: model; confidence high, 17 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ABE vs DUD — Elo differential +62 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ABE recent form** — DWWLL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DUD recent form** — LWWLW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 52% vs market price 3.65 at Betfair Exchange, edge 24.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **ABE in-form player** — Afeez Aremu — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.91. [^fact-8]: **DUD in-form player** — Will Ferry — 4 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.15. [^fact-9]: **ABE key absence** — Tom McIntyre out (injury), 134 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **DUD key absence** — L. Stephenson out (injury), 623 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .