# Falkirk vs Hibernian > Premiership · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/694) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Falkirk 1–3 Hibernian ## Model verdict - **Falkirk win:** 34% - **Draw:** 35% - **Hibernian win:** 31% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Small Elo edge, chaotic form — tight toss-up ahead of kickoff ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 9 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC in the Premiership.[^fact-1] The fixture will be played with Falkirk as the home side — the Elo differential was calculated with home advantage applied.[^fact-3] ## Form & momentum Recent results paint a picture of two teams struggling for consistency. Falkirk arrive with a WLLWL pattern over their last ten fixtures, recorded as 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses, producing 1.30 points per game and averaging 1.80 goals scored while conceding 1.90 per match in that span.[^fact-4] Hibernian have an even more mixed short run: LLLWD in the last ten, represented as 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, delivering 1.20 points per game and averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match.[^fact-5] Those numbers imply different stylistic footprints: Falkirk’s games have yielded more goals for and against, while Hibernian’s recent matches have been lower-scoring and slightly tighter defensively by the conceded metric.[^fact-4][^fact-5] The model gives a nearly deadlocked probability split — Home 34% / Draw 35% / Away 31% — with the runner-up separated by a single percentage point, a sign of low confidence around the projection.[^fact-2][^fact-9] Elo nonetheless shows a tangible edge to the hosts: Falkirk hold a plus-70 Elo-point advantage once home advantage is applied.[^fact-3] That gap is material in Elo terms and suggests the model incorporates a structural superiority for Falkirk at home even as short-term form and poisson-style goal profiles keep the probabilistic outcome close.[^fact-3][^fact-2] ## Personnel Falkirk’s most in-form contributor on the numbers is Calvin Miller, who has 2 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.19 across those matches.[^fact-6] That direct involvement in goals and elevated match rating indicate a player capable of tipping a tight game in the hosts’ favour. Hibernian’s notable recent performer is Felix Passlack, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last four appearances and an average rating of 7.03.[^fact-7] The marginally lower attacking output and rating compared with Falkirk’s hot player underline why the model’s probabilities lean only slightly away from a home win.[^fact-6][^fact-7] The most impactful absence on paper is Hibernian’s Jamie McGrath, suspended and unavailable after contributing 728 minutes in the recent run.[^fact-8] Losing that chunk of minutes removes a sustained presence from Hibernian’s recent rotation and is a clear personnel hit that the model and Elo margin factor in.[^fact-8][^fact-3] ## Where the model sees value The model’s split — Home 34% / Draw 35% / Away 31% — is narrow enough to mark this as a match where market pricing and subjective adjustments will swing perceived value quickly.[^fact-2] Three markets were analysed against the model, implying the model’s edges were tested across multiple price streams rather than a single quote.[^fact-9] Two directional observations stand out from the data without inventing external odds. First, the Elo advantage of +70 points for Falkirk at home is the clearest structural lean and constitutes the model’s core justification for favouring the hosts despite similar recent points-per-game figures for both sides.[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5] Second, the suspension of Jamie McGrath removes a consistent contributor from Hibernian’s recent minutes (728), which nudges the balance away from Hibernian in creative continuity metrics that the model appears to internalise.[^fact-8] Markets that underweight Falkirk relative to a home-adjusted Elo baseline or that ignore the impact of McGrath’s absence would therefore look most likely to diverge from the model. Conversely, markets that place outsized emphasis on Hibernian’s marginal defensive solidity in the last ten (1.10 conceded) without accounting for the missing minutes could be overestimating Hibernian’s current cohesion.[^fact-5][^fact-8][^fact-3] ## Verdict The model leans but does not commit: a narrow 34% home edge is matched by a 35% draw probability and a 31% away chance, with confidence flagged as low by the single-percentage-point gap to the runner-up.[^fact-2] Elo and personnel context tilt the interpretation toward Falkirk at home — a tangible +70 Elo-point edge and the suspension of Jamie McGrath are the decisive inputs — yet the recent forms and compact model probabilities justify treating this as a finely poised match.[^fact-3][^fact-8][^fact-4][^fact-5] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Premiership [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 34% / Draw 35% / Away 31% (source: model; confidence low, 1 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Falkirk vs HIB — Elo differential +70 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Falkirk recent form** — WLLWL last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HIB recent form** — LLLWD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Falkirk in-form player** — Calvin Miller — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.19. [^fact-7]: **HIB in-form player** — Felix Passlack — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.03. [^fact-8]: **HIB key absence** — Jamie McGrath out (suspension), 728 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .