# Burgos vs Almería > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 14:15 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/697) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Burgos 0–0 Almería ## Model verdict - **Burgos win:** 25% - **Draw:** 33% - **Almería win:** 42% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Away side favoured after model and Elo edge align ## The stage La Liga 2 action arrives on Saturday, 9 May 2026 with kickoff at 14:15 UTC, a fixture occupying a late-season slot where every point has compressed value in the table stakes[^fact-1]. The supplied facts identify the competition and start time; no further venue or standing details are provided in the brief. ## Form & momentum The model assigns a clear lean: Away 42%, Draw 33%, Home 25% — an away-tilted probability distribution with a 9 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and a mid-level confidence flag in the verdict[^fact-2]. That external projection dovetails with an Elo edge: Burgos display a +28-point differential against Almería once home advantage is applied, a modest but meaningful number in an Elo frame[^fact-3]. Recent form profiles underline which side arrives hotter. Burgos have produced DDLWW from their last 10 outings, recorded as 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss, translating into 1.90 points per game and outputting 1.40 goals while conceding 0.70 per match in that span[^fact-4]. Almería look sharper in raw attacking numbers and results: WWWLW across their last 10 equals 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, averaging 2.10 points per game with 2.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The contrast is simple on paper — Burgos are compact and stingy defensively in this snapshot, Almería are higher-scoring but leak more at the back, and the model's away tilt appears to privilege Almería's superior attacking return[^fact-2][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Curro Sánchez has been Burgos's form outlet: 2 goals and 2 assists across his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.32 in those matches[^fact-7]. For Almería the in-form focal point is Sergio Arribas, who has delivered 4 goals in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.66 over that run[^fact-8]. These are the only named individual-performance facts provided; the supplied facts do not list other starters, rotation choices, injuries or suspensions, so analysis here remains focused on those two high-impact contributors[^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value Markets analysed against the model total three in the supplied comparison set[^fact-9]. The clearest value flagged is the Away Match Winner: model probability 44% vs a market price of 2.82 offered at 22Bet, producing an edge of 8.8 percentage points and described with high confidence by the model team[^fact-6]. That single-market edge is consistent with the model's broader probabilities, which favour the away outcome at 42% overall[^fact-2][^fact-6]. A quick arithmetic reading makes the appeal visible: the model's 44% certainty on the away win implies a fair price materially shorter than 2.82, and the stated 8.8 pp edge quantifies that gap directly in probability space[^fact-6]. No other market edges are disclosed in the supplied facts, so the Away Match Winner stands alone as the model-identified discrepancy versus the quoted market in the brief[^fact-9][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans to the road: an away tilt driven by Almería's hotter scoring sequence and corroborated by an identified 44% model probability vs a 2.82 market quote, while Burgos' compact recent defensive numbers and a +28 Elo adjustment keep the match competitive and the home outcome plausible[^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 14:15 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 25% / Draw 33% / Away 42% (source: model; confidence mid, 9 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BUR vs ALM — Elo differential +28 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BUR recent form** — DDLWW last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ALM recent form** — WWWLW last 10: 7-0-3 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 44% vs market price 2.82 at 22Bet, edge 8.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **BUR in-form player** — Curro Sánchez — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.32. [^fact-8]: **ALM in-form player** — Sergio Arribas — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.66. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .