# Grazer AK vs Rheindorf Altach > Admiral Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/698) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Grazer AK 2–2 Rheindorf Altach ## Model verdict - **Grazer AK win:** 33% - **Draw:** 42% - **Rheindorf Altach win:** 25% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw market opens clear value against home-side Elo edge ## The stage Kickoff is Sat 9 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC in the Admiral Bundesliga[^fact-1]. The game is listed with Grazer AK as the home side in the model’s matchup and that home advantage has been applied to the Elo calculation[^fact-3]. No stadium-specific detail is available in the supplied facts; focus is therefore on what the fixture means in the table context given those inputs[^fact-1][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences give a mixed picture. Grazer AK’s 10-game record reads WLLDL (five wins, one draw, four defeats) and the model quantifies that as 1.60 points per game, with 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match over the sample[^fact-4]. Rheindorf Altach arrive with LLDDW over 10 (two wins, four draws, four defeats), producing 1.00 points per game, 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match in that same span[^fact-5]. On Elo, the home side holds a clear edge: a +148-point differential after applying home advantage[^fact-3]. The model still prices the contest as relatively open: Home 33% / Draw 42% / Away 25%, with model confidence marked as mid and a 9-percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. Those numbers show a market-sized paradox: Elo favours the hosts, but the model’s single most likely outcome is the draw[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Grazer AK’s attacking spark in recent weeks has been Mark Grosse, who has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist across his last 4 appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.41 in that run[^fact-7]. His availability is a major form point for the hosts; conversely, Grazer AK will be missing Zeteny Jano through injury, a named absence in the facts provided[^fact-9]. For Rheindorf Altach, Mike-Steven Bähre has been influential as a creator with 0 goals and 3 assists in his last 5 appearances, averaging a 6.99 rating in that window[^fact-8]. Altach also come without Marlon Mustapha due to suspension; the supplied context notes 108 minutes in a recent run for that player and confirms the suspension absence[^fact-10]. Those personnel swings are concrete: Grosse supplying recent goal threat for the hosts[^fact-7], Mustapha missing finishing options for the visitors[^fact-10], and Jano unavailable for Grazer AK[^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were analysed against the model’s outputs[^fact-11]. The clearest edge identified is the Draw in Match Winner: the model puts the draw at 42% while the market price quoted is 3.40 at bet365, translating to an edge of 12.8 percentage points and flagged with high confidence in the supplied fact set[^fact-6]. That gap is consistent with the model making the draw the single most probable outcome despite a sizeable home Elo advantage for Grazer AK[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The model’s mid confidence and a 9-point gap to the runner-up underline that the draw is not a marginal call within the model itself[^fact-2]. The supplied facts do not list the other two market comparisons in detail, so the Draw is the explicit, quantified discrepancy available for direct comparison here[^fact-11][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans to the draw as the primary outcome (42%) even with Grazer AK’s +148 Elo edge applied for home advantage, and that specific projection creates the clearest market discrepancy in the supplied analysis — Draw 42% vs market 3.40, edge 12.8 pp[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. Personnel notes underline the matchup’s fault lines: Grosse is a live attacking ingredient for the hosts[^fact-7], while both sides contend with key absences in Jano (injury) and Mustapha (suspension)[^fact-9][^fact-10]. The model’s confidence is mid and the gap to the runner-up outcome is 9 percentage points, which frames the draw as the model’s durable lean rather than a razor-thin outlier[^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 15:00 UTC — Admiral Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 33% / Draw 42% / Away 25% (source: model; confidence mid, 9 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — GAK vs ALT — Elo differential +148 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **GAK recent form** — WLLDL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ALT recent form** — LLDDW last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 42% vs market price 3.40 at bet365, edge 12.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **GAK in-form player** — Mark Grosse — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.41. [^fact-8]: **ALT in-form player** — Mike-Steven Bähre — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.99. [^fact-9]: **GAK key absence** — Zeteny Jano out (injury). [^fact-10]: **ALT key absence** — Marlon Mustapha out (suspension), 108 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .