# Zürich vs Grasshopper > Super League · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/703) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Zürich 2–1 Grasshopper ## Model verdict - **Zürich win:** 60% - **Draw:** 23% - **Grasshopper win:** 17% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Zürich favourites to exploit substantial Elo and market edge ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sat 9 May 2026, 16:00 UTC in a Super League fixture with Zürich at home and Grasshopper visiting[^fact-1]. This fixture sits inside the regular-season calendar; the immediate signal to read is home advantage baked into the pre-match numbers[^fact-1][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines are distinctly poor for both teams, but Zürich carry marginally more momentum. Zürich’s last 10 read DLLLW, a 2-1-7 split (W-D-L) producing 0.70 points per game with 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Grasshopper’s ten-match sequence shows LLWLL, a 2-0-8 split (W-D-L) yielding 0.60 points per game with 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model gives Zürich the clear edge: Home 60% / Draw 23% / Away 17%, with a high-confidence 37 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. That probabilistic gap aligns with an Elo differential of +136 points in favour of the home side after applying home advantage[^fact-3]. The underlying story from form and ratings: both defences have leaked but Grasshopper appear more brittle in goals conceded per game[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Zürich’s most notable in-form contributor in recent outings is Philippe Paulin Keny, who has 1 goal and 2 assists across his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.85 in that span[^fact-7]. Grasshopper’s local hot-spot is Jonathan Asp Jensen, with 1 goal and no assists in his last five and an average rating of 6.76[^fact-8]. Key absences matter: Zürich will be without Chris Kablan due to injury, who logged 372 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9]. Grasshopper are missing Michael Frey through injury, a player who featured for 641 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. Those minutes figures hint at how each side must reshuffle personnel and minutes load into the match-day XI[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies a clear market inefficiency on the Match Winner market: the model prices the Home win at 60% versus the Betfair Exchange market price of 2.42, producing an edge of 19.1 percentage points and a high-confidence signal[^fact-6]. That single top pick sits inside a tranche of three markets analysed against the model for this fixture[^fact-11]. The 60% model probability is consistent with the Elo advantage and recent form differentials already noted[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Given the defensive numbers — Zürich conceding 1.90 per match and Grasshopper conceding 2.40 per match in their last ten — the model’s bias toward the home result appears driven by both rating-class and marginally better recent output in attack and points per game[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans on Zürich to collect the win: Home 60% / Draw 23% / Away 17%, a stance backed by a +136 Elo gap and the market edge identified on the Match Winner line[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. Personnel absences on both sides complicate prediction windows, but the quantitative advantage remains with the hosts based on the supplied data[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 16:00 UTC — Super League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 60% / Draw 23% / Away 17% (source: model; confidence high, 37 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ZUR vs GRA — Elo differential +136 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ZUR recent form** — DLLLW last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GRA recent form** — LLWLL last 10: 2-0-8 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 2.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 60% vs market price 2.42 at Betfair Exchange, edge 19.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **ZUR in-form player** — Philippe Paulin Keny — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.85. [^fact-8]: **GRA in-form player** — Jonathan Asp Jensen — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.76. [^fact-9]: **ZUR key absence** — Chris Kablan out (injury), 372 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **GRA key absence** — Michael Frey out (injury), 641 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .