# Winterthur vs Lausanne Sport > Super League · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/704) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Winterthur 2–1 Lausanne Sport ## Model verdict - **Winterthur win:** 13% - **Draw:** 32% - **Lausanne Sport win:** 55% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans away from the hosts after clear probability split ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 9 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC in the Super League[^fact-1]. This is a straightforward late‑season fixture on the calendar where league context will be decided elsewhere; the model assigns a clear probability distribution with the away side favoured[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum The numbers point to a momentum gap. Winterthur’s recent record reads DLLLL over the last ten with a 1‑3‑6 split (W‑D‑L), producing 0.60 points per game and an attacking output of 1.10 goals scored while conceding 2.10 per match[^fact-4]. Lausanne Sport’s nearer‑term trends are steadier: LWLWL in their last ten with a 4‑0‑6 split, 1.20 points per game, 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo line, already adjusted for home advantage, gives Lausanne a 48‑point edge on Winterthur, underlining the underlying strength gap captured by the ratings[^fact-3]. Taken together, form metrics and Elo both favour the away side rather than the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. ## Personnel Winterthur’s attacking spark in recent matches has come from Nishan Burkart, who has 2 goals and 0 assists in his last four appearances and an average match rating of 7.17[^fact-7]. Lausanne’s most noticeable recent performer is Jamie Roche, who also has 2 goals and 0 assists in his last four and an average rating of 7.12[^fact-8]. On the injury front, Winterthur will be without Luca Zuffi, who accounted for 602 minutes in the recent run and is ruled out[^fact-9]. Lausanne are missing Omar Janneh, who played 635 minutes in the recent run and is likewise absent[^fact-10]. Those absences strip both sides of experienced minutes; the model evidently still prefers Lausanne despite Janneh’s unavailability[^fact-2][^fact-10][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s aggregated verdict assigns Home 13% / Draw 32% / Away 55%, with a high confidence call and a 23 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up outcome[^fact-2]. That split creates a single standout market discrepancy identified by the desk: the model rates the Away Match Winner at 61% while the Betfair Exchange market price implies a different valuation (1.80 quoted), producing an edge of 5.6 percentage points in mid confidence assessment[^fact-6]. Three markets were analysed against the model in total[^fact-11]; the largest divergence comes on the away winner where model and market no longer align[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans firmly toward the away side — a 55% match‑win probability for Lausanne Sport versus just 13% for the hosts, with the clearest market edge on the away match‑winner where the model sits at 61% against a 1.80 market price[^fact-2][^fact-6]. Personnel absences on both sides remove experienced minutes from the equation, but form, goals‑for/against rates and a 48‑point Elo advantage after home adjustment all point the same way: the model’s lean is towards the visitors[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 16:00 UTC — Super League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 13% / Draw 32% / Away 55% (source: model; confidence high, 23 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Winterthur vs LAU — Elo differential -48 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Winterthur recent form** — DLLLL last 10: 1-3-6 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LAU recent form** — LWLWL last 10: 4-0-6 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 61% vs market price 1.80 at Betfair Exchange, edge 5.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **Winterthur in-form player** — Nishan Burkart — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.17. [^fact-8]: **LAU in-form player** — Jamie Roche — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.12. [^fact-9]: **Winterthur key absence** — Luca Zuffi out (injury), 602 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **LAU key absence** — Omar Janneh out (injury), 635 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .