# Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor > Super Lig · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/709) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Alanyaspor 3–1 Kayserispor ## Model verdict - **Alanyaspor win:** 72% - **Draw:** 20% - **Kayserispor win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home heavyweights expected to control final-week destiny ## The stage Alanyaspor host Kayserispor in a Super Lig fixture kicking off Sat 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC. [^fact-1] This game reads like a home side under pressure to deliver: the model gives a dominant Home probability of 72%, with Draw at 20% and Away at 8%. [^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Recent form lines show Alanyaspor have one win, five draws and four losses in their last 10 matches (DLLDD), yielding 0.80 points per game and an average of 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-4] Kayserispor arrive with a slightly better points return on paper—three wins, two draws and five losses in their last 10 (DWLLL)—but a marginally higher goals conceded figure and slightly lower attacking output: 1.10 points per game, 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5] The Elo comparison underlines the gap: Alanyaspor carry a +178 Elo edge over Kayserispor after accounting for home advantage. [^fact-3] Taken together, recent form is mixed for both sides, yet the Elo and model probabilities point to a clear structural advantage for the home side. [^fact-2][^fact-3] ## Personnel Alanyaspor’s in-form option to watch is Güven Yalçın, who has contributed two goals and no assists across his last five appearances and holds an average match rating of 6.72 in that span. [^fact-7] Kayserispor’s most notable recent performer is Fedor Chalov, with one goal and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.99 during that stretch. [^fact-8] Availability shifts matter: Alanyaspor will be without Nuno Lima due to suspension after he logged 892 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-9] Kayserispor are missing Youssef Aït Bennasser through injury; he accounted for 488 minutes in the recent period. [^fact-10] Those absences remove consistent minutes from each side and will influence selection and balance, especially given the tight margins in recent team outputs. [^fact-9][^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value The model’s top call is a Home match-winner: Home at 72% versus a market price of 2.42 on Betfair Exchange, yielding an edge of 31.0 percentage points and flagged as high confidence. [^fact-2][^fact-6] Three markets were analysed against the model to produce these edges. [^fact-11] The clearest statistical pillars supporting that edge are the +178 Elo advantage with home applied and the model’s 52 percentage-point confidence gap to the runner-up reading. [^fact-3][^fact-2] Market-implied probabilities appear to understate the home team’s likelihood of victory relative to the model’s view; the explicit quantification provided for the Home market is the primary instance of that mismatch. [^fact-6] ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side: Home 72%, Draw 20%, Away 8%, driven by a substantial Elo advantage and the model’s internal confidence gap, even after accounting for both teams’ stop-start recent form and notable absences. [^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9][^fact-10] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 72% / Draw 20% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 52 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ANY vs KAY — Elo differential +178 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ANY recent form** — DLLDD last 10: 1-5-4 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **KAY recent form** — DWLLL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 72% vs market price 2.42 at Betfair Exchange, edge 31.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **ANY in-form player** — Güven Yalçın — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.72. [^fact-8]: **KAY in-form player** — Fedor Chalov — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.99. [^fact-9]: **ANY key absence** — Nuno Lima out (suspension), 892 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **KAY key absence** — Youssef Aït Bennasser out (injury), 488 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .