# İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor > Super Lig · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/710) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** İstanbul Başakşehir 3–0 Samsunspor ## Model verdict - **İstanbul Başakşehir win:** 51% - **Draw:** 29% - **Samsunspor win:** 20% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and two hot strikers set the tone for decisive clash ## The stage A late-afternoon Super Lig fixture kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC, with the home side carrying home advantage into the tie[^fact-1][^fact-3]. The timing places this as one of the final regular-season matchups in May, a slot where fine margins and squad depth often decide outcomes[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum On surface metrics the two teams look remarkably similar: both sides enter with five wins, three draws and two defeats in their last 10 matches, producing an identical 1.80 points per game in that window[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model nonetheless separates them: it gives the home side a clear lead with a 51% probability, while the draw is down at 29% and the away win at 20% — a 22 percentage-point gap to the runner-up, signalling a confident lean toward the hosts[^fact-2]. Elo adds further context. With home advantage applied, the home team holds an Elo edge of +114 points over the visitors, a margin that translates into a substantive quality gap in the model's internal framework[^fact-3]. Where the raw recent-form numbers are close, Elo and the model both tilt the balance for the hosts — suggesting that the visitors’ good run is being weighed against longer-term strength and the boost of playing at home[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Attackers are the most immediate storyline. The home side’s in-form figure is Eldor Shomurodov, who has produced four goals and no assists across his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.54 in that span[^fact-6]. The visitors counter with Marius Mouandilmadji, who has also scored four times in his last five, but with the additional creative output of two assists and an average rating of 7.41[^fact-7]. These two players are the clearest match-winners on their respective rosters and will be decisive both in chance-creation and in forcing the opponents’ defensive focus[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Availability issues matter. The hosts will be missing Deniz Türüç through injury, a confirmed absence that removes a familiar option from their setup[^fact-8]. The visitors will be without Yalçın Kayan because of suspension; Kayan has accumulated 532 minutes in the recent run before being flagged unavailable, so his absence eliminates a player who was regularly involved over the last stretches[^fact-9]. Those absences will alter personnel choices and in-game rotations for both sides, and the model has internalised them when projecting outcomes[^fact-8][^fact-9]. Defensive trends suggest slightly different profiles: the hosts have conceded 0.90 goals per match in the recent sample while scoring 1.50; the visitors have been more porous at 1.50 conceded but more prolific offensively at 1.80 goals per match in the same window[^fact-4][^fact-5]. That combination makes the fixture likely to hinge on the hosts’ ability to blunt the visitors’ edge in forward output without their suspended player, and on whether the home attacking outlet can sustain pressure despite the injury absence[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model's core probabilities give the home side the plurality at 51%, a draw at 29% and the away team 20%[^fact-2]. Markets were analysed across three different lines and outcomes against that model view[^fact-10]. Those comparisons revealed the largest divergence on the home-win axis: the model’s 51% sits noticeably higher than implied market prices in at least one of the three markets surveyed, producing a clear quantitative edge in the model’s view[^fact-2][^fact-10]. Another area of separation is the double-chance/draw protection lines, where the model’s 29% draw probability compresses the expected payoff for conservative plays compared with markets that priced draws slightly differently; this was one of the three markets assessed against the model[^fact-2][^fact-10]. Finally, the model flags a split between anticipated goal-flow and market expectations driven by the visitors’ recent 1.80 goals-per-match output versus the hosts’ stronger defensive concession rate; that divergence was visible across the analysed markets and underpins the model’s preference structure even if odds were mixed on how to reflect it[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model leans to the hosts: a 51% chance of home victory versus 29% for a draw and 20% for an away win, with an Elo gap of +114 points reinforcing that lean; personnel absences on both sides temper extremes but do not overturn the home edge[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 51% / Draw 29% / Away 20% (source: model; confidence high, 22 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — IBA vs Samsunspor — Elo differential +114 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **IBA recent form** — LWDWD last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Samsunspor recent form** — WWWWL last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **IBA in-form player** — Eldor Shomurodov — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.54. [^fact-7]: **Samsunspor in-form player** — Marius Mouandilmadji — 4 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.41. [^fact-8]: **IBA key absence** — Deniz Türüç out (injury). [^fact-9]: **Samsunspor key absence** — Yalçın Kayan out (suspension), 532 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .