# Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor > Super Lig · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/711) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Beşiktaş 1–2 Trabzonspor ## Model verdict - **Beşiktaş win:** 39% - **Draw:** 25% - **Trabzonspor win:** 36% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Elo edge for hosts but model nudges the visitors ## The stage This Super Lig fixture kicks off on Sat 9 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC and brings a compact, high-stakes domestic contest with Beşiktaş at home and Trabzonspor travelling in search of points[^fact-1]. The immediate competitive context is straightforward: it is a late-season league match where small margins and form swings matter for table positioning and momentum[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent returns across the last 10 matches create a slightly contradictory picture. Beşiktaş’s sequence reads W D L W L and translates into 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in that sample, producing 1.90 points per game with an attacking output of 1.60 goals scored and a defensive return of 0.70 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Trabzonspor’s last-10 line is D L D D W (recorded as 6-3-1 in wins-draws-losses reporting), yielding 2.10 points per game, the same 1.60 goals scored per match and a slightly higher 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The simple summary: Trabzonspor have been converting form into more points recently, while Beşiktaş combine a stronger defensive record over the sample with a similar goals-scored rate[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Those short-run indicators sit alongside an Elo rating edge for Beşiktaş of +72 points once home advantage is applied, a non-trivial quality tilt in historical-performance space[^fact-3]. The model’s probabilistic view splits the outcome fairly evenly — Home 39%, Draw 25% and Away 36% — and flags low confidence, with only a 3 percentage-point gap to the runner-up probability[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Beşiktaş rely on an in-form central contributor in Kristjan Asllani, who has 2 goals and 1 assist across his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.05 in that spell[^fact-7]. That attacking spark matters given Beşiktaş’s compact goals-scored figure over the recent sample[^fact-4][^fact-7]. On the other flank of the contest, Trabzonspor’s creative trigger has been Wagner Pina, who has delivered 3 assists in his last five matches and carries an average rating of 7.02 across the same window[^fact-8]. Availability will shape selections: Beşiktaş will be without defender Felix Uduokhai through injury after 559 minutes in the recent run, a significant absence for any side managing defensive continuity[^fact-9]. Trabzonspor are missing Mustafa Eskihellaç through injury, who had contributed 726 minutes in the recent period and whose absence removes another established contributor from their matchday options[^fact-10]. Those two absences are the heaviest personnel notes on either team heading into the meeting[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model outputs an overall probability split of Home 39%, Draw 25% and Away 36%, but market prices depart from that synthesis in at least one clear place[^fact-2]. The most prominent edge identified is on the Away Match Winner: the model assigns an implied probability of 35% to an away victory while the Betfair Exchange places the market price at 3.80, a gap that the model quantifies as a 9.0 percentage-point edge and marks with high confidence[^fact-6]. Markets analysed total three separate lines compared against the model’s view, with this away-win divergence the standout discrepancy[^fact-11][^fact-6]. The tension is visible: Elo and home advantage favour Beşiktaş by +72 points, yet short-term points-per-game and the model’s probability mix lean closer to parity, producing a market opportunity on the visitor in the model’s assessment[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans narrowly but decisively toward an away tilt despite Beşiktaş’s Elo advantage — the probability split is tight (Home 39% / Draw 25% / Away 36%) and confidence is flagged as low — but the clearest model-market divergence is the away-win price, where the model sees value vs the Betfair Exchange estimate[^fact-2][^fact-6]. The tie-breaking considerations are the minutes lost to injury on both sides and the recent points-per-game trend that has favoured Trabzonspor; those elements explain why the model’s lean sits closer to parity than the Elo gap alone would suggest[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 39% / Draw 25% / Away 36% (source: model; confidence low, 3 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BES vs TRA — Elo differential +72 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BES recent form** — WDLWL last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **TRA recent form** — DLDDW last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 35% vs market price 3.80 at Betfair Exchange, edge 9.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **BES in-form player** — Kristjan Asllani — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-8]: **TRA in-form player** — Wagner Pina — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.02. [^fact-9]: **BES key absence** — Felix Uduokhai out (injury), 559 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **TRA key absence** — Mustafa Eskihellaç out (injury), 726 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .