# Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük > Super Lig · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/716) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Kocaelispor 0–1 Fatih Karagümrük ## Model verdict - **Kocaelispor win:** 81% - **Draw:** 14% - **Fatih Karagümrük win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy home edge as Elo and model align on likely outcome ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 9 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC in the Super Lig[^fact-1]. This fixture presents a clear short-term measuring point: the model assigns a dominant probability to the home side, with outcomes skewed heavily toward a home win[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form tells a divergent story. The home side has struggled for results, registering a single win in their last ten matches and compiling a 1-4-5 W-D-L split, worth 0.70 points per game, with scoring and defensive returns of 0.50 goals for and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors arrive in comparatively better nick: three wins in their last ten, a 3-3-4 W-D-L split, 1.20 points per game, scoring 0.80 and conceding 1.10 per match[^fact-5]. Neither team’s recent raw form fully explains the gap implied by the predictive model and Elo. The model gives the home side an 81% chance to win, with only 14% for a draw and 6% for an away victory — a very lopsided projection with a 67 percentage-point confidence gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. That aligns with the Elo differential: the home side holds a +162-point edge once home advantage is applied[^fact-3], a margin substantial enough in Elo terms to explain a pronounced expectation of a home victory despite the visitors’ marginally better recent results on the surface[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Key individual form and absences shape how that projection could play out. For the home side, Serdar Dursun has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.56 across those matches[^fact-7]. His recent output is one of the primary attacking indicators available for the hosts[^fact-7]. The visitors’ attacking spark in recent games has been Serginho, who has 2 goals in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.94[^fact-8]. Availability concerns cut both ways. The home side will be without Hrvoje Smolcic through injury; he logged 810 minutes in the recent run before that absence[^fact-9]. The visitors are missing Daniele Verde to injury, a player who accounted for 438 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. Those absences are the clearest personnel shifts supplied in the evidence and are likely to matter most where defensive stability or attacking creativity had previously been tracked by minutes[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were scanned against the model for three different selections[^fact-11]. The standout discrepancy is the Match Winner market: the model rates the home win at 81%, while the Betfair Exchange market price sits at 2.18, producing an edge of 35.3 percentage points in favour of the home selection (the model signals high confidence on this edge)[^fact-2][^fact-6]. That single-market gap is the clearest quantitative disagreement between the market and the model across the three markets analysed[^fact-11]. The model’s large Elo cushion (+162) underpins this valuation gap; such an Elo advantage, combined with the model’s internal calibration, drives a strong home projection even though the visitors’ recent points-per-game figure is higher[^fact-3][^fact-5]. The absence of Hrvoje Smolcic on the home side and Daniele Verde for the visitors are factored into recent-minute baselines, but the model still produces the same dominant home probability[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model’s position is unambiguous: a heavy lean toward the home side, supported by an 81% match-win probability and a +162 Elo edge, and reflected in a sizable market-model gap on the Match Winner line[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. Serdar Dursun and Serginho are the in-form names to monitor pre-kickoff, while the absences of Hrvoje Smolcic and Daniele Verde are the clearest personnel caveats in the available evidence[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 81% / Draw 14% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 67 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük — Elo differential +162 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Kocaelispor recent form** — DLDDD last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Fatih Karagümrük recent form** — WDLLW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 81% vs market price 2.18 at Betfair Exchange, edge 35.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Kocaelispor in-form player** — Serdar Dursun — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.56. [^fact-8]: **Fatih Karagümrük in-form player** — Serginho — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.94. [^fact-9]: **Kocaelispor key absence** — Hrvoje Smolcic out (injury), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Fatih Karagümrük key absence** — Daniele Verde out (injury), 438 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .