# Konyaspor vs Fenerbahçe > Super Lig · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/717) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Konyaspor 0–3 Fenerbahçe ## Model verdict - **Konyaspor win:** 8% - **Draw:** 17% - **Fenerbahçe win:** 75% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model backs heavy Fenerbahçe road victory despite Konyaspor resilience ## The stage This Super Lig showdown kicks off on Sat 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC, with Konyaspor hosting Fenerbahçe in a fixture that will be decided more by quality than by fortune on the day[^fact-1][^fact-1]. Both club names carry weight in their own contexts: Konyaspor enter as hosts while Fenerbahçe arrive as the clear model favourite[^fact-1][^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines tell a compact story about consistency versus firepower. Konyaspor’s last-10 reads LWWWD and the sequence translates to a 6-2-2 record (W-D-L), worth 2.00 points per game, with 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Fenerbahçe’s last-10 is WLDWW, a 5-3-2 ledger producing 1.80 points per game, with 2.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model places a very large probability on an away win — 75% for Fenerbahçe — versus just 8% for Konyaspor and 17% for a draw, indicating a pronounced gap in expected match control[^fact-2]. That gap is also visible in Elo terms: Konyaspor carry a -175 Elo differential against Fenerbahçe after home advantage is applied, a margin that frames this as an uphill task for the hosts on paper[^fact-3]. Taken together, the recent-output numbers and the Elo edge suggest Konyaspor are compact and competitive but likely outmatched by Fenerbahçe’s attacking return and overall quality[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Konyaspor’s attacking burden is now more concentrated after the absence of Blaz Kramer, who is out injured after contributing 371 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9]. Enis Bardhi has been Konyaspor’s most productive creative outlet over the past five appearances, delivering 1 goal and 2 assists and carrying an average match rating of 7.17 in that span[^fact-7]. Those numbers pin much of Konyaspor’s chance creation to a single operator[^fact-7][^fact-9]. Fenerbahçe arrive without Jayden Oosterwolde, who is also ruled out with injury after accumulating 760 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. Losing Oosterwolde trims Fenerbahçe’s depth but does not erase the individual finishing threat epitomised by Talisca, who has scored 6 goals and provided 1 assist across his last five appearances while posting an average rating of 7.90[^fact-10][^fact-8]. That scoring cadence from Talisca materially shifts the balance toward the visitors when chance conversion matters[^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probabilities are emphatic: 75% away, 8% home, 17% draw[^fact-2]. Markets analysed against that view reveal a standout edge on the away Match Winner: the model assigns 76% to an away win while the available market price at 1xbet implies roughly a 65.4% chance (price 1.53), yielding a 10.6 percentage-point edge in the model’s favour (high confidence)[^fact-6][^fact-6]. That value finding sits on three markets compared to the model’s framework, highlighting the away-win line as the clearest divergence between model and market appetite[^fact-11][^fact-6]. No other market edge from the supplied comparison set is specified with the same confidence; the identified edge is therefore the primary market inefficiency the model flags for this game, driven by Fenerbahçe’s offensive numbers and the Elo gap[^fact-6][^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward an away victory for Fenerbahçe: 75% probability and a 175-point Elo advantage frame this as a game the visitors are expected to control, with Talisca the principal source of goals and Konyaspor’s reliance on Enis Bardhi amplified by Blaz Kramer’s absence[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-8][^fact-7][^fact-9]. Markets analysed show one clear value divergence on the away Match Winner against the model’s view[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Super Lig [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 17% / Away 75% (source: model; confidence high, 58 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — KON vs FEN — Elo differential -175 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **KON recent form** — LWWWD last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **FEN recent form** — WLDWW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 76% vs market price 1.53 at 1xbet, edge 10.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **KON in-form player** — Enis Bardhi — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.17. [^fact-8]: **FEN in-form player** — Talisca — 6 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.90. [^fact-9]: **KON key absence** — Blaz Kramer out (injury), 371 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **FEN key absence** — Jayden Oosterwolde out (injury), 760 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .