# Nürnberg vs Schalke 04 > 2. Bundesliga · Kickoff Sat 9 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/719) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Nürnberg 3–0 Schalke 04 ## Model verdict - **Nürnberg win:** 14% - **Draw:** 41% - **Schalke 04 win:** 45% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Visitors arrive in form; home side clinging to parity ## The stage This is a 2. Bundesliga fixture with kickoff scheduled for Sat 9 May 2026, 18:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The match pits the home side against the visitors in a league context where every result carries the usual stakes for the division[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The home team arrive with a mixed return of DWDLD over their last 10, translating to a 3-4-3 W-D-L split and 1.30 points per game, having averaged 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match in that span[^fact-4]. By contrast the visitors sit on a purple patch of WWWWW across their last 10, a 7-3-0 W-D-L line producing 2.40 points per game with 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model places an Elo edge against the hosts of -36 points after applying home advantage, indicating an underlying quality gap in favour of the travellers[^fact-3]. Taken together, form and Elo point to clear momentum for the visitors[^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel The hosts' most notable in-form contributor is Fabio Gruber, who has one goal and zero assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.32 in that run[^fact-8]. A significant absence for the home side is Mohamed Ali Zoma, who is unavailable with injury after contributing 553 minutes in the recent sequence[^fact-10]. On the visitors' side, Dejan Ljubicic is the standout in-form figure with two goals and three assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.64 over that period[^fact-9]. The visitors will also be missing Nikola Katic through injury, a player who logged 360 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The quantitative model favours the away win with a 50% probability while the market price on the Betfair Exchange sits at 3.80, producing an edge of 24.0 percentage points according to the comparison[^fact-6]. The model also identifies value on the draw: the model assigns a 35% probability while the Betano market quotes the draw at 4.00, an edge of 10.1 percentage points by the model's accounting[^fact-7]. Across the three markets analysed, these two stands are the clearest disparities between model and market pricing[^fact-12]. Note that the model's overall match verdict is Home 14% / Draw 41% / Away 45%, with the away probability narrowly leading the draw by a low-confidence 4 percentage-point margin over the runner-up[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans to the visitors but treats the draw as a very live outcome; probabilities read Home 14% / Draw 41% / Away 45%, with only a 4-point confidence gap between the top two outcomes[^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 9 May 2026, 18:30 UTC — 2. Bundesliga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 14% / Draw 41% / Away 45% (source: model; confidence low, 4 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — NUR vs S04 — Elo differential -36 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **NUR recent form** — DWDLD last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **S04 recent form** — WWWWW last 10: 7-3-0 (W-D-L), 2.40 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 50% vs market price 3.80 at Betfair Exchange, edge 24.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Draw in Match Winner — model 35% vs market price 4.00 at Betano, edge 10.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **NUR in-form player** — Fabio Gruber — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.32. [^fact-9]: **S04 in-form player** — Dejan Ljubicic — 2 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.64. [^fact-10]: **NUR key absence** — Mohamed Ali Zoma out (injury), 553 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **S04 key absence** — Nikola Katic out (injury), 360 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .